$52.00
$150.00
bear $52.00
base $121.00
bull $150.00
margin of safety $65.00
market price* $78.53
Post Holdings makes and sells packaged and food-service foods through four segments: Post Consumer Brands (North American ready-to-eat cereal, granola, pet food and nut butters), Weetabix (United Kingdom cereal, muesli and protein shakes), Foodservice (primarily egg and potato products) and Refrigerated Retail. Fiscal 2025 sales were $8.16 billion. Walmart is the largest customer at 17.4% of sales and 29.9% of Post Consumer Brands. How we measure earnings. We start from operating cash flow, remove swings in working capital, and deduct stock compensation and the portion of capital spending needed to keep the business running. Because Post spent heavily on new capacity and acquisitions, we counted growth-related spending only where sales actually grew; in fiscal 2025 that left almost all of the $510 million of capital spending treated as ordinary upkeep, which is a conservative choice. Depreciation and the large amortization of acquired brands are added back, as they are sunk acquisition costs, but we did not assume any growth in the business to offset the fact that those acquired intangibles wear down. The BellRing spin-off in 2022 changed the company, so we use figures for the continuing business only. Owner earnings per share were about $3.75 in fiscal 2020, $5.23 in 2021, $2.53 in 2022 (input-cost inflation), $6.32 in 2023, $7.00 in 2024 and $6.64 in 2025. We use the median of fiscal 2021 through 2025, which spans both the 2022 squeeze and the stronger recent years: about $6.32 per share, or roughly $400 million a year. Because Post has bought back a lot of stock (average diluted shares fell from 63.6 million to 54.5 million between the first nine months of fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026), we value the dollar amount over roughly 55 million shares, about $7.3 per share. Fiscal 2025 owner earnings were $417 million, down about 11% from $468 million in fiscal 2024, because capital spending rose from $430 million to $510 million. We assume no growth in year one, which is above that trailing decline. The reason is that capital spending in the first nine months of fiscal 2026 fell to $290 million from $361 million a year earlier, while cash from operations was steady at $691 million versus $697 million. The anchor is also below the fiscal 2024 and 2025 levels. Base case, about $121 per share: owner earnings stay at about $400 million a year with no growth credited, discounted at 6%. We credit no growth because the recent acquisitions of 8th Avenue and PPI ($920 million in fiscal 2025) are not yet in the results for a full year and sales growth has been uneven; cereal and egg markets were not assumed to expand. We do let the earnings continue beyond year 10 because the brands and customer relationships have produced similar cash for many years. Bear case, about $52 per share: owner earnings settle near $230 million, between the fiscal 2022 low of $159 million and the fiscal 2020 level of $259 million, and then erode by about 2% a year. The named pressures are input-cost inflation, avian influenza outbreaks that the company says hurt Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail, dependence on Walmart, and leverage: long-term debt was $7.45 billion at September 30, 2025 and interest expense was $361 million in fiscal 2025, with $575 million of convertible notes maturing in August 2027 and a 9.29% leaseback financing. No debt is subtracted from the value because interest is already deducted in owner earnings, but the bear case reflects how little cushion high leverage leaves. The company also carries $7.4 billion of purchase commitments, mostly long-term egg contracts and open orders. Bull case, about $150 per share: owner earnings return to about $480 million (near fiscal 2024's $468 million) as capital spending stays at the lower fiscal 2026 pace and the recently built capacity and acquired businesses contribute a full year, then grow about 2% a year for five years before holding flat. What would make this wrong: a repeat of the 2022 cost squeeze, a severe avian influenza year, loss of shelf space at Walmart, or difficulty refinancing debt at higher rates would push results toward the bear case. Share count and the working-capital timing of fiscal 2025 acquisitions could not be fully reconciled from the annual filing alone; the latest quarterly report available is for the period ended June 30, 2026.