abrdn Palladium ETF Trust (PALL) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

This is the abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF, a grantor trust that holds physical palladium bars and nothing else. It has no operations, earns no income and pays no dividends; its only cost is a sponsor fee that is paid out of the palladium itself, so each share represents a slowly shrinking claim on a fixed quantity of metal. Because there is no business generating cash, an earnings-based valuation does not apply, and the shares are worth what the palladium behind them is worth, which is the net asset value per share. At December 31, 2025 that was $142.33 per share (7,275,000 shares outstanding), up from $83.06 a year earlier and $104.43 at the end of 2023. We use that figure for all three cases because the trust's value is set by the palladium price on any given day, not by anything the trust does, and we have no evidenced basis to forecast the metal's price. Shares trade at whatever price the market sets relative to this value, and the trust's value moves one-for-one with palladium, which has fallen sharply in some years (the per-share value dropped from $164.16 to $104.43 during 2023). Since the shares can never be worth more than their underlying metal over time, and the fee steadily erodes that metal, there is no margin of safety absent a price gap to that value; no margin-of-safety price is therefore set. This is a way to own a commodity, not an owner of a business, and it does not fit a value-based margin-of-safety approach. The figure is as of the latest audited year-end and will differ from today's value as palladium prices move.