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NEKTAR THERAPEUTICS (NKTR) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Margin of safety$10.00 ComplexityHigh Updated
$2.00 $111.30
bear $2.00 base $19.55 bull $111.30 margin of safety $10.00 market price* $35.78
PLACEHOLDER
Fiscal yearOwner's earningsMethodology
2025 -$10.92 ▼
OE = CFO - ΔWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$(208,511)K; working-capital section (Op leases net+Other assets+AP+Accrued expenses; AR and Inventory nil in FY2025) = $(37,016)K; SBC=$12,649K; capex=$171K, revenue fell 2025 vs 2024 so growth capex=$0, maintenance capex=capex=$171K; OE = -208,511 -(-37,016) -12,649 -171 = $(184,315)K. Diluted weighted-average shares (post one-for-fifteen reverse split effective June 8, 2025) = 16,870,930. OE/sh = -184,315,000/16,870,930 = $(10.92). Reconciliation check: net loss $(164,076)K + non-cash interest on royalty-sale liability $26,184K + loss from equity-method investment $8,727K + SBC $12,649K + D&A $1,026K + impairment of ROU/PP&E $4,441K − non-cash royalty revenue $54,932K − maintenance capex $171K = $(184,326)K, within rounding of the CFO-based figure — reconciles (§2.3). Most recent year of the 3-year anchor window (FY2023-2025). Note: substantially all reported revenue is non-cash royalty revenue from a prior royalty-monetization sale and does not represent cash received by Nektar. Source: FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-104547.
2024 -$14.04 ▼
OE = CFO - ΔWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$(175,709)K; working-capital section (AR+Inventory+Op leases net+Other assets+AP+Accrued expenses) = $(6,239)K; SBC=$21,612K; capex=$1,468K, revenue rose 2024 vs 2023 by $8,305K; capex_ratio (avg capex/revenue FY2023-2025, the anchor window)=0.92% so growth capex=$76K, maintenance capex=clamp(1,468-76)=$1,392K; OE = -175,709 -(-6,239) -21,612 -1,392 = $(192,474)K. Includes a $40,390K non-cash gain on the December 2024 sale of the Huntsville manufacturing facility (added back). Diluted shares (as retrospectively restated for the June 2025 one-for-fifteen reverse split, per the FY2025 10-K) = 13,710,775. OE/sh = -192,474,000/13,710,775 = $(14.04). Middle year of the current 3-year anchor window (FY2023-2025) and the value used as the anchor (median of the window). Cash-flow detail source: FY2024 10-K, accession 0000950170-25-039389; restated share count source: FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-104547.
2023 -$16.34 ▼
OE = CFO - ΔWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$(192,606)K; working-capital section (AR+Inventory+Op leases net+Other assets+AP+Accrued comp+Other accrued exp+Deferred revenue) = $(19,940)K; SBC=$33,388K; capex=$865K, revenue fell slightly 2023 vs 2022 so growth capex=$0, maintenance capex=capex=$865K; OE = -192,606 -(-19,940) -33,388 -865 = $(206,919)K. Diluted shares 190,001,000; restated ÷15 for the June 2025 reverse split = 12,666,733. OE/sh = -206,919,000/12,666,733 = $(16.34). Includes a $76,501K non-cash goodwill impairment and $35,328K ROU/PP&E impairment (both added back per methodology; the underlying decay of those written-off assets is reflected qualitatively in the growth path, not the earnings level). First full year post-Eli Lilly termination of the rezpegaldesleukin collaboration (Apr 2023); part of the current 3-year anchor window (FY2023-2025). Source: FY2024 10-K three-year comparative, accession 0000950170-25-039389.
2022 -$29.46 ▼
OE = CFO - ΔWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$(304,007)K; working-capital section (AR+Inventory+Op leases net+Other assets+AP+Accrued comp+Other accrued exp+Deferred revenue) = $492K; SBC=$57,320K; capex=$5,676K, revenue fell 2022 vs 2021 so growth capex=$0, maintenance capex=capex=$5,676K; OE = -304,007 -492 -57,320 -5,676 = $(367,495)K. Diluted shares 187,138,000; restated ÷15 = 12,475,867. OE/sh = -367,495,000/12,475,867 = $(29.46). Transition year: BMS terminated the bempegaldesleukin collaboration in Feb 2022; restructuring began. Source: FY2022 10-K, accession 0000906709-23-000004.
2021 -$40.86 ▼
OE = CFO - ΔWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$(412,660)K; working-capital section (AR+Inventory+Op leases net+Other assets+AP+Accrued comp+Other accrued exp+Deferred revenue) = $(22,974)K; SBC=$94,674K; capex=$14,989K, revenue fell 2021 vs 2020 so growth capex=$0, maintenance capex=capex=$14,989K; OE = -412,660 -(-22,974) -94,674 -14,989 = $(499,349)K. Diluted shares 183,298,000; restated ÷15 = 12,219,867. OE/sh = -499,349,000/12,219,867 = $(40.86). Peak BEMPEG Phase 3 oncology spend, terminated by BMS in Feb 2022 after the program failed; not used in the current anchor. Source: FY2022 10-K three-year comparative, accession 0000906709-23-000004.
2020 -$35.93 ▼
OE = CFO - ΔWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$(313,287)K; working-capital section (AR+Inventory+Op leases net+Other assets+AP+Accrued comp+Other accrued exp+Deferred revenue) = $16,748K; SBC=$94,261K; capex=$7,258K, revenue rose 2020 vs 2019 by $38,298K; capex_ratio (avg 2018-2022)=9.94% so growth capex=$3,807K, maintenance capex=clamp(7,258-3,807)=$3,451K; OE = -313,287 -16,748 -94,261 -3,451 = $(427,747)K. Diluted shares 178,581,000; restated ÷15 = 11,905,400. OE/sh = -427,747,000/11,905,400 = $(35.93). BEMPEG-era spend; not used in the current anchor. Source: FY2022 10-K three-year comparative, accession 0000906709-23-000004.
2019 -$40.85 ▼
OE = CFO - ΔWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$(328,681)K; working-capital section (AR+Inventory+Op lease ROU net+Other assets+AP+Accrued comp+Other accrued exp+Deferred revenue+Other liabilities) = $21,688K; SBC=$99,795K; capex=$26,285K, revenue fell sharply 2019 vs 2018 (from $1,193,323K to $114,617K) so growth capex=$0, maintenance capex=capex=$26,285K; OE = -328,681 -21,688 -99,795 -26,285 = $(476,449)K. Diluted shares as originally reported 174,993,000; restated ÷15 = 11,666,200. OE/sh = -476,449,000/11,666,200 = $(40.85). Reflects the heavy bempegaldesleukin (BEMPEG) Phase 3 oncology spend, a program terminated in 2022; not used in the current anchor since that program no longer exists. Source: FY2019 10-K, accession 0000906709-20-000004.
2018 $55.73 ▼
OE = CFO - ΔWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$718,214K (includes the one-time ~$1.85B Bristol-Myers Squibb upfront/equity payment for the bempegaldesleukin collaboration, recognized largely as FY2018 revenue); working-capital section (AR+Inventory+Other assets+AP+Accrued comp+Other accrued exp+Deferred revenue+Other liabilities) = $(39,006)K; SBC=$88,101K; capex=$14,239K, revenue rose 2018 vs 2017 by $885,612K; using capex_ratio 7.17%, growth capex=$63,499K > capex, maintenance capex clamped to $0; OE = 718,214 -(-39,006) -88,101 -0 = $669,119K. Diluted shares as originally reported 180,119,000; restated ÷15 = 12,007,933. OE/sh = 669,119,000/12,007,933 = $55.73. This figure is a large one-time non-recurring outlier driven entirely by the BMS upfront payment and is explicitly excluded from the valuation anchor per methodology (§2.5). Source: FY2019 10-K three-year comparative, accession 0000906709-20-000004.
2017 -$7.64 ▼
OE = CFO - ΔWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$(80,414)K; working-capital section (AR+Inventory+Other assets+AP+Accrued comp+Other accrued exp+Deferred revenue+Other liabilities) = $(37,616)K; SBC=$36,615K; capex=$9,676K, revenue rose 2017 vs 2016 ($307,711K vs $165,436K, +$142,275K); capex_ratio (avg capex/revenue 2016-2020)=7.17% so growth capex=$10,201K > capex, maintenance capex clamped to $0; OE = -80,414 -(-37,616) -36,615 -0 = $(79,413)K. Diluted shares as originally reported 155,953,000; restated ÷15 for the June 2025 reverse split = 10,396,867. OE/sh = -79,413,000/10,396,867 = $(7.64). Pre-transformation (legacy) business; not used in the current anchor. Source: FY2019 10-K three-year comparative, accession 0000906709-20-000004.
2016 -$15.55 ▼
OE = CFO - ΔWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$(117,024)K; working-capital section of cash-flow reconciliation (AR+Inventory+AP+Accrued comp+Accrued clinical trial exp+Other accrued exp+Deferred revenue+Other liabilities) = $(4,570)K; SBC=$25,850K; capex=$6,392K, revenue declined 2016 vs 2015 ($165,436K vs $230,784K) so growth capex=$0 and maintenance capex=capex=$6,392K; OE = -117,024 -(-4,570) -25,850 -6,392 = $(144,696)K. Diluted shares as originally reported 139,596,000; restated for the June 2025 one-for-fifteen reverse stock split (÷15) = 9,306,400. OE/sh = -144,696,000/9,306,400 = $(15.55). This year reflects Nektar's pre-BEMPEG legacy manufacturing/royalty business, a different business from the company today; not used in the current valuation anchor. Source: FY2016 10-K, accession 0001564590-17-003064.

Owner's earnings per share by fiscal year, most recent first. Tap a row to see how that figure was calculated, including the source filing.

Sales geography
United States, Europe, Asia-Pacific (no commercial product sales; reported revenue is non-cash royalty revenue on partnered drugs sold globally)
Historical growth strategy
Nektar has grown by developing drug candidates on its polymer-conjugation and immunology platforms and licensing them to large pharmaceutical partners (AstraZeneca, Takeda, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly) for upfront payments, milestones and royalties. It funds the gaps by selling royalty streams, selling assets and issuing equity.
Chart analysis
Only a few price points were read in this run: the shares were offered at $58.00 in February 2026, traded around $67 in April at-the-market sales, were offered at $92.00 on April 23, 2026, and last traded at $85.09 on May 6, 2026. That is a sharp rise over the first half of 2026. A chartist would describe a strong upward move with a pullback from the April high, but there is not enough data here to judge trend, support or resistance.
Competitors

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Circle of competence

We don't have circle of competence information for this company yet.