EVERSPIN TECHNOLOGIES INC. (MRAM) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Everspin Technologies makes magnetoresistive RAM (MRAM), a memory chip that keeps its data without power and is used in industrial, automotive, aerospace and data-center equipment. 2025 revenue was $55.2 million (product sales $48.3 million, licensing, royalty and engineering services $6.9 million). Chips are made by GlobalFoundries under a joint development agreement. The two largest end customers were 33% of revenue. How we measure earnings: we start from operating cash flow, remove swings in receivables, inventory and payables, and subtract stock compensation (a real cost, roughly $5-7 million a year, about 10% of revenue) and the part of capital spending needed to stay in business. On that basis, per share results were about $(0.35) in 2020, $0.32 in 2021, $0.22 in 2022, $0.41 in 2023, $0.06 in 2024 and $(0.20) in 2025. We anchor on the 2021-2025 median, $0.22 per share, because the company only turned cash-generative in 2021. The 2023 peak and the 2025 trough are both inside that window. Year-one growth is set at zero against a trailing decline in 2025, since nothing contracted supports a rebound. Two items matter. First, 2024 and 2025 cash flow includes about $6.1 million and $4.4 million from a strategic award to plan defense-grade MRAM supply, out of $14.6 million over roughly 2.5 years from August 2024. That income is ending, and we do not carry it forward. Second, capital spending jumped to $6.8 million in 2025 (from $3.0 million), with another $4.0 million of equipment bought but unpaid at year end. We treat most of it as ongoing cost, which is why 2025 is negative. We could not reconcile some small working-capital items completely from the filing data, so the cash flow bridge has a residual of a few million dollars in recent years. Bear case (about $0): the award ends, capex and stock compensation stay at 2025 levels, the top two customers (33% of revenue) do not grow, and owner earnings stay at or below zero. The company holds $44.5 million of cash and no going-concern warning, so it is not worth less than nothing, but this case credits no value from operations. Base case (about $2.00): owner earnings return to the 2021-2025 median of $0.22 a share and hold there with no growth, for about 15 years. Evidence: five years of revenue between $50 and $64 million, a customer base of about 1,400 and sticky design-ins. We credit no growth from new products, defense supply or share gains because none is contracted. Bull case (about $4.00): earnings sit at the best year on record, $0.41 (2023), for the same period, if capex normalises and product sales keep the 14% growth seen in 2025. What would make us wrong: rising stock compensation and dilution (diluted shares rose from 18.8 million to 22.6 million since 2020), continued heavy capex, or the loss of one of the two largest customers. Note that the 2025 revenue increase of 9.5% came mostly from Asia-Pacific.