LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (LIND) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Lindblad Expeditions runs expedition cruises (the Lindblad segment, $495.6 million of 2025 tour revenue) and land-based and small-group adventure travel (the Land Experiences segment, $275.4 million). Total 2025 tour revenue was $771.0 million, up 20% from $644.7 million in 2024. Its ships sail under the National Geographic name, and the National Geographic partnership was extended through 2040 in November 2023. How we measure earnings. We start from operating cash flow and remove three things: the swing in working capital, stock-based compensation, and the part of capital spending that maintains the business rather than expands it. The working-capital removal matters a great deal here. Guests pay deposits well before they sail, so customer prepayments (unearned passenger revenues) added $39.5 million of cash in 2025 and $53.0 million in 2024. That is a timing benefit tied to growth, not lasting earnings, so we exclude it. On this basis, earnings to owners were about $8.8 million in 2025 ($0.16 per share), $3.4 million in 2024 ($0.06), and a loss of about $4.6 million in 2023. 2022 was a pandemic-recovery year with a large loss on this measure, and years before 2020 were dominated by heavy ship-building spend. We do not treat those as describing the business today. We use 2024 and 2025 as the measuring window, giving a starting level of roughly $0.11 per share. We treated most capital spending as maintenance. Available guest nights rose only about 1.5% in 2025 (328,617 versus 323,691), so the revenue growth came from fuller ships (guest nights sold rose from 253,941 to 287,830) and higher pricing rather than new capacity. Capital spending was $47.7 million in 2025, of which we treated about $8.1 million as growth spending. Depreciation and amortization was $62.8 million, and we did not adjust earnings for it beyond the maintenance-spend judgement above. What changed recently. Net income in the first half of 2026 was $5.1 million versus a loss of $7.4 million in the first half of 2025, and capital spending in that period was $14.9 million versus $29.2 million. Both quarters improved on the prior year. That supports a level between the 2024-2025 window and the 2025 figure, so the base case uses $0.14 per share. Owner earnings per share grew from about $0.06 to $0.16 in 2025; the base case begins below that 2025 level, so we are not assuming the trend continues. Base case, about $1.36 per share. Earnings of $0.14 per share are held flat for 15 years, through 2040, matching the National Geographic partnership, after which we assume nothing further. We credit no growth. The 2025 rise in occupancy and prices already sits in the starting level, but continued price increases, further acquisitions and additional expedition capacity are not contracted or demonstrated over a long record, so they are left out. Bear case, about $0.27 per share. Earnings fall back to the 2024 level of about $0.06 per share for five years, and nothing is credited after that. The company owes $675 million of 7.00% notes due in 2030 and has no earnings record that shows how they would be repaid. Debt is not deducted from the value of the shares, but this is the reason the bear case ends in 2030. Bull case, about $2.62 per share. Earnings rise to about $0.27 per share, the 2025 level plus half of the first-half 2026 profit improvement, and are held for the same 15 years through 2040. No further growth is credited. What we did not do. We did not subtract debt, and we did not add the company's cash (cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $289.7 million at the end of 2025). Because owner earnings are already after interest paid ($50.8 million in 2025), those two steps are already reflected. Series A convertible preferred stock accrued a non-cash dividend of $4.9 million in 2025, and the company also has redeemable noncontrolling interests; owner earnings per share do not separately deduct either. What would make this wrong. Earnings are thin relative to interest costs and to the capital spending, so small changes in the maintenance-spending judgement or in pricing move the value a lot. If more of the 2025 capital spending turns out to be recurring, owner earnings would be close to zero. If the 2025 improvement continues, the value would be higher than the base case.