Coronado Global Resources Inc. (CODQL) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Coronado Global Resources mines and sells metallurgical (steel-making) coal and a smaller amount of thermal coal. Its main asset is the Curragh complex in Queensland, Australia (two open cut mines plus the new Mammoth underground mine), alongside U.S. mines including Buchanan. In 2025 metallurgical coal was 91.6% of coal revenue. Per-share figures below are per share of common stock; each share equals ten CDIs. What the numbers show. On a cash basis (operating cash flow, less swings in working capital, less stock compensation, less the maintenance portion of capital spending), the company earned $5.32 per share in the 2022 boom, $0.30 in 2023, then lost $1.17 in 2024 and $2.77 in 2025. The 2020 to 2025 median is about a $0.25 loss per share. We left out the $142.8 million Stanwell prepayment received in 2025 because it is an advance on future coal deliveries, not earnings. Revenue fell from $3.57 billion in 2022 to $1.95 billion in 2025, and average realized metallurgical prices in 2025 were $36 per tonne lower than 2024. Capital spending stayed near $245 million a year in 2024 and 2025. Balance sheet. At year-end 2025 the company owed $696.9 million (including a $400 million 9.25% senior secured note due 2029 and a revolving facility provided by Stanwell at 9% to 12%) against $172.8 million of cash. During 2025 the company disclosed substantial doubt about continuing as a going concern at earlier reporting dates. Management concluded it was alleviated at year-end after the November 27, 2025 refinancing and amended coal supply agreements with Stanwell, which include rebate waivers, deferrals and prepayments. Those arrangements help liquidity, but the revolver adds financial covenants from December 31, 2027. Base case (about -$2.70 per share). Losses continue at reduced levels: about -$1.50 per share in 2026, -$1.00 in 2027, -$0.50 in 2028, then break-even. Last year's loss was -$2.77 per share, so assuming a smaller loss requires a reason. It is dated and in the filing: mining costs fell $165.8 million in 2025 (contractor fleet cuts and idling the Logan surface operations), the company reported meaningful margin recovery in the second half of 2025, and Mammoth is targeted to reach 1.5 to 2.0 million tonnes a year in 2026 with growth projects now complete. We credit no coal price recovery, because a price recovery is not something we can evidence. We also credit no earnings after 2028 because nothing named supports a profit at 2025 prices. This case comes out below zero: the company appears to owe more than the business is worth, by roughly $2.70 per share (about $450 million in total). Bear case (about -$5.40 per share). Cash losses of about $2.50, $2.00 and $1.50 per share in 2026 to 2028 as prices stay at 2025 levels and cost savings fall short, funded by the Stanwell facility and prepayments. After that the story ends, because lenders hold secured claims. This also appears to owe more than it is worth. A specific risk is the January 2, 2026 fatality at Mammoth, which briefly idled Curragh's mines and suspended Mammoth, and shows operating disruption can recur. Bull case (about $3.90 per share). Losses narrow to about -$1.00 in 2026 and zero in 2027, then owner earnings of about $0.50 per share a year from 2028 through 2045, matching the Curragh reserve life of about 20 years, if Mammoth reaches its target and capital spending falls as the finished growth projects roll off. No price increase is assumed. What would prove this wrong. Sustained metallurgical coal prices well above 2025 levels would raise all three cases, though we do not assume it. Also, the Stanwell prepayments must eventually be repaid through coal deliveries, which reduces future cash receipts. The margin-of-safety price is very low and applies only once the business shows two consecutive half-years of positive owner earnings.