Chord Energy Corp (CHRD) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Chord Energy is an independent oil and gas producer focused on the Williston Basin in North Dakota and Montana, with a smaller natural gas position in the Marcellus Shale. It holds about 1.3 million net acres in the Williston, nearly all held by production, and produced about 276,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025 (about 155,000 barrels a day of crude oil). Its earnings are set mostly by the price it receives for oil and by how much it must spend on drilling to keep volumes level. The business was reshaped by the 2022 Whiting merger and the May 2024 Enerplus acquisition, so we measure it from the merger period onward and set aside 2021, when it was a much smaller company. How we measure earnings. We start from operating cash flow, remove swings in working capital, and deduct stock compensation ($25.7 million in 2025) and all drilling and completion spending. We treat all of that spending as maintenance: shale wells decline steeply, so the money is what holds volumes flat, and revenue growth in 2022 and 2024 came from price and acquisitions rather than from capital spending. Non-cash charges such as depletion and a $539 million 2025 impairment are added back automatically because they are not cash. On that basis, earnings per diluted share were about $42.73 in 2022, $22.12 in 2023, $17.62 in 2024 and $11.65 in 2025 (owner earnings of $674 million on capital spending of $1,348 million in 2025). We exclude 2022 as the peak year of the window and use the median of 2023 to 2025, about $17.60 per share, as the normal level. The 2025 result reflects a realized oil price of $62.78 per barrel versus $73.67 in 2024 and higher spending following the Enerplus deal. Growth check. Per-share owner earnings fell about 34% in 2025. Our base case does not assume growth: it assumes a return to the $17.60 level already earned in 2024 and exceeded in 2023. The support in the filings is the first half of 2026, where operating cash flow was $1,624 million against $1,077 million a year earlier and revenue was $3.84 billion against $2.40 billion, while capital spending rose only from $704 million to $756 million. We do not lift the level for that, because it largely reflects prices, which we do not forecast. We also give no credit for the full-year contribution of the $542 million XTO Williston acquisition closed October 31, 2025 (it added 38.0 million barrels of oil equivalent of proved reserves), since its production is not separated out in the filing. Base case, about $165 per share. Owner earnings hold at roughly $17.60 per share for ten years, then fade in a straight line to zero over the following ten. Evidence: proved reserves of 917.5 million barrels of oil equivalent against 2025 production of 101.0 million, about nine years of supply, 69% already developed; and 103.8 million barrels added in 2025 through drilling alone, roughly matching what was produced. After year ten we assume nothing that is not yet demonstrated, so value tapers rather than continuing. Bear case, about $94 per share. Earnings stay at the 2025 low of $11.65 per share, and the drilling engine stops replacing output after eight years, fading to zero over the next eight. Named pressures: the 2025 reserve report moved 31.9 million barrels of oil equivalent of planned drilling out of the near-term plan, oil prices and Williston discounts lowered 2025 realizations, and the company carries $1.5 billion of senior notes due 2030 and 2033, with an undrawn revolver and about $52 million of cash interest in 2025. Leverage is modest, so debt does not change the answer materially. We do not subtract debt separately, since earnings are already after interest. Bull case, about $218 per share. Earnings return to the 2023 level of $22.12 per share and are sustained for twelve years before fading over eight, if the drilling inventory keeps replacing production as it did in 2025. What the shares appear to be worth. The three cases span roughly $94 to $218, with the middle case near $165. Because this is an oil-price-driven business that depletes its own resource, the estimate calls for a wide cushion below the low case, and the margin-of-safety price is about $60. What would make this wrong. A sustained oil price below 2025 levels, or wells that need more capital than 2025's $1.35 billion to keep volumes flat, would push earnings under the bear case. Figures come from the 2025 annual report and the second-quarter 2026 quarterly report; the reserve estimates are prepared by independent engineers, and no non-filing sources were used.