$50.37
$169.55
bear $50.37
base $103.96
bull $169.55
margin of safety $72.77
market price* $129.56
AZZ (cik_id 65) cleared all four screens: a Fort Worth, TX metal-coatings company founded 1956 (hot-dip galvanizing plus Precoat Metals coil coating), not Chinese-controlled, not cannabis/crypto, and a genuine operating business. Ten years of xbrl_values (FY2015-FY2026, FYE late Feb) show OCF ranging $76.8M (FY18) to $525.4M (FY26), capex $23.6M-$115.9M, and SBC $4.1M-$14.8M. Owner earnings (OCF-capex-SBC) were volatile: ~$85M(FY15) down to ~$26M(FY23, the year AZZ divested Infrastructure Solutions and funded the Precoat Metals acquisition with debt, pushing LT debt to $1.058B and NI to a $53M loss), recovering to $140M(FY24), $121M(FY25), then a headline $430M(FY26). That FY26 figure is inflated by a one-time $273.2M AVAIL JV cash distribution (per the 4/22/26 8-K); stripping it gives normalized owner earnings of ~$157M, used to anchor a $150M base-case start. Leverage improved sharply: LT debt fell from $1.058B (FY23) to $477.7M (FY26 year-end); diluted shares grew modestly 25.1M->30.2M, no alarming dilution.
Base: $150M start, 8%/4% two-stage growth, 2.5% terminal, 9% discount -> $103.96/sh.
Bear: $125M start, 3%/2% growth, 1.5% terminal, 10.5% discount (steel/construction cyclicality, nonrecurring JV cash) -> $50.37.
Bull: $165M start, 10%/6% growth, 3% terminal, 8% discount -> $169.55. Current price ~$135.55 (Yahoo Finance, early Aug 2026) sits between base and bull, implying the market has priced in continued strong execution. Applied a 30% margin-of-safety discount to base (cyclical, recently-leveraged industrial) for a margin-of-safety price of $72.77, well below the current quote.