Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Amplify Energy is now a small, oil-only producer with two properties: the Beta field in federal waters about 11 miles off Long Beach, California, and the Bairoil complex in Wyoming. During 2025 it sold its Eagle Ford, East Texas/North Louisiana and Oklahoma assets, repaid all revolver borrowings, and ended the year with $60.7 million of cash and no debt outstanding. A planned merger with Juniper Capital affiliates was terminated in April 2025. This is a first analysis of the company. Because most of the business was sold in the fourth quarter of 2025, the reported ten-year record describes a different company. Owner earnings per share on our basis were $2.69 (2018), -$1.09 (2019), $1.31 (2020), $0.52 (2021), $0.31 (2022), $2.47 (2023), $0.09 (2024) and -$1.19 (2025). We treated all drilling spending as necessary to hold production, since the company's revenue moves with oil prices rather than with a steady programme of expansion. We did not use this history as the starting level. Instead we valued the two remaining properties directly from the year-end 2025 reserve report, at the oil prices the company actually realised in 2025 (about $60 per barrel at both properties). What the remaining business looks like: 2025 volumes from the two properties were about 2.5 million barrels (Beta 1.36 million, Bairoil 1.11 million), worth roughly $148 million at 2025 realised prices. Operating cost is heavy: lease operating expense was about $38 per barrel at Beta and $46 per barrel at Bairoil, which is most of the revenue. Proved reserves are 38.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (Beta 64%), about 16 years of production. The independent reserve report shows about $391 million of undiscounted net cash flow from those reserves after production costs, $382 million of future development and offshore decommissioning costs and taxes, or $335 million discounted at 10%. That figure does not include corporate overhead. Underlying general and administrative cost in 2025, after removing severance, deal costs and bad debt, was about $34 million including stock compensation. Capital spending guidance for 2026 is $45 to $65 million, 97% at Beta. Base case: reserves are produced as the report shows, at 2025 prices and costs, with no growth credited beyond what the report already contains. About $355 million of present value (6% discount rate, our approximation from the report's 10% figure) is roughly offset by about $344 million of present value of overhead and stock compensation over 16 years. That leaves about $11 million, or roughly $0.30 per share. Trailing owner earnings fell in 2025 and the base case assumes no rebound. Bear case (-$1.70 per share): operating costs rise by $3 per barrel across the reserves, reflecting the higher workover expense at Beta disclosed for 2025 and the possibility that the Bairoil electricity and CO2 cost savings seen in the fourth quarter do not last. That removes roughly $80 million of present value and leaves the business worth less than nothing on this basis: the ongoing costs of running the two properties exceed what the reserves earn. This is not a debt problem, since no borrowings were outstanding at year-end, but a cost problem. Bull case ($2.60 per share): overhead falls to about $28 million a year after the 36-person workforce reduction and Beta workover costs normalise by $2 per barrel on its 24 million barrels of reserves. Both are levers within management's control and already in motion, not price forecasts. What we left out: any rise in oil prices, additional drilling locations beyond those in the reserve report, and new acquisitions. Oil price gains are a market factor rather than something we can evidence about this business. Second-quarter 2026 revenue of $52.7 million was well above the first quarter's $37.5 million, but six-month cash from operations was only $7.3 million and we could not read the interim filing text, so it does not move our numbers. The $60.7 million of year-end cash is not added to these values, because our approach counts only the earnings stream; it is worth about $1.50 per share to a holder and is a real cushion. What could make us wrong: a sustained higher oil price would raise all three cases sharply because costs are largely fixed; conversely a lower price or a Beta production problem would push value negative. The present-value conversion from the reserve report is approximate, and the value is small relative to the range, so small changes in overhead or operating cost change the answer materially.