valueequityanalysis.com

Independent, business-by-business valuations built from company filings — owner earnings, a ten-year outlook, and a bear / base / bull range. Search a ticker to see our estimate of what the business is worth.

Not investment advice. We are not registered investment advisers, and the people behind this site may hold or trade positions in companies analyzed here. Full disclosures.

Amalgamated Financial Corp. (AMAL) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Margin of safety$46.00 ComplexityAverage Updated
Analysis Owner's Earnings Geography Growth Strategy Chart Analysis Competitors Circle of Competence
$46.81 $77.41
bear $46.81 base $68.88 bull $77.41 margin of safety $46.00 market price* $47.13
Amalgamated Financial owns Amalgamated Bank, founded in New York by the Amalgamated Clothing Workers of America and now a roughly $9.4 billion-asset bank (June 30, 2026). Its edge is where its money comes from: national labor unions, political campaigns and committees, nonprofits, foundations and socially responsible businesses. Union deposits alone were $2.05 billion (23% of deposits) at the end of 2025, and about 39% of deposits ($3.29 billion of $8.46 billion at June 30, 2026) pay no interest. On the other side of the balance sheet are $5.08 billion of loans, heavily New York multifamily and commercial real estate, plus a large securities portfolio. It operates from three New York City branches and one each in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. Earnings level. Owner earnings (operating cash flow, less working-capital swings, stock compensation and capital spending) were $3.92 a share in 2022, $3.57 in 2023, $4.55 in 2024 and $4.33 in 2025. We anchor on the median of 2022-2025 ($4.13), the period in which the bank has operated at roughly today's scale and which includes the 2023 regional-bank stress. Because the cash-flow measure adds back loan-loss provisions, we deduct actual average net charge-offs over 2023-2025 ($16.7 million a year, about $0.55 a share), giving a starting level of $3.58 a share, about $108 million. As a bank, interest is an operating cost, so we value these after-interest earnings directly and subtract no debt. We also charge each case the capital the bank must retain to grow: a bank cannot grow its balance sheet without growing its equity, so growth is valued only after paying for it. Recent trend. Owner earnings fell about 5% in 2025 ($4.55 to $4.33). Our base case nonetheless starts at 4% growth because the first half of 2026 already shows the reversal: net interest income was $166.2 million versus $143.5 million a year earlier (+16%), net income $60.0 million versus $51.0 million, and deposits rose from $7.95 billion to $8.46 billion in six months. Base case ($68.88 a share; business worth about $2.08 billion, no debt to subtract). Earnings grow 4% a year at first, tapering to 2% by year ten, the pace the bank can fund from retained earnings (equity rose from $509 million at end-2022 to $835 million at mid-2026 while paying dividends and buying back stock). After year ten, earnings hold flat at about $145 million: the deposit relationships are decades old and the low-cost funding is structural, but we credit no further growth. Bear case ($46.81 a share; business worth about $1.41 billion). Two named risks hit together. First, political deposits swing with election cycles; they rose from $970 million to $1.73 billion during 2025 and can leave just as quickly, so we permanently cut earnings by about $17.5 million (roughly the spread lost if about $1 billion of free money is replaced at market rates). Second, a credit cycle of the 2008-2010 kind: the bank holds $1.64 billion of multifamily loans, about $1.01 billion in New York State, 81% of those on buildings with rent-regulated units whose rent increases were curtailed by the 2019 Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act, plus $325 million of purchased consumer solar loans already charging off at higher rates. We take about $113 million of after-tax losses over years two to four (roughly 3% of loans before tax, several times today's 0.43% annual charge-off rate), with no growth thereafter. Total capital of 16.4% of risk-weighted assets at end-2025 and ongoing earnings absorb this without new shares. This case is still well above tangible book value of about $27.49 a share because even through the 2023 deposit scare the noninterest-bearing deposit base grew; a franchise that earns a spread on free money is worth more than its capital as long as those relationships hold. Bull case ($77.41 a share; business worth about $2.34 billion). The 2026 momentum continues: 9% growth in the first year, consistent with the first-half rise in net interest income, then 7% tapering to 3% as cheap deposit growth is deployed. Faster growth requires more retained capital, which is why the bull case is not far above the base. Accounting judgements. We deducted actual charge-offs instead of accounting provisions, which keeps one-time reserve releases or builds from distorting the level. Capital spending jumped to $17.0 million in the first half of 2026 as the bank fits out a new headquarters under a fifteen-year lease; we treat this as one-time and did not lower the earnings level for it. The previous estimates are not comparable with these figures because they were built on a different basis. Margin of safety. We are reasonably confident in the earnings level: four years of cash earnings in a $3.57-$4.55 range, including a sector-wide deposit run. The worst plausible outcome is the bear case arriving sooner than modeled: a post-election outflow of political money at the same time as New York rent-regulated multifamily values fall. The bank has no meaningful holding-company debt beyond $63.8 million of subordinated notes, strong capital, and short-dated political money is a known quantity it has managed through prior cycles. If we are wrong about growth and the political deposits, the shares look worth around the bear figure of about $47. From $46, if the base case plays out over three years, it implies about $8.30 a share of distributable earnings and a business worth about $73 a share, about 21% a year; the bear case implies a value at or above that price. The current dividend is $0.17 a quarter, paid over the holding period. The margin-of-safety price is $46.
Fiscal yearOwner's earningsMethodology
2025 $4.33 ▼
OE = CFO − WC movement − SBC − maintenance capex. CFO=$135,782,000; WC movement = accrued interest receivable −3,956,000 + other assets −856,000 + other liabilities 778,000 + net LHFS (29,027,000−30,132,000=−1,105,000) = −5,139,000 (net use of cash, added back); SBC=$6,918,000; capex=$1,379,000 (capex/revenue ~0.42%, growth capex negligible given tiny capex base, so maintenance capex≈total capex). OE=135,782,000+5,139,000−6,918,000−1,379,000=$132,624,000. Diluted shares=30,632,000. OE/sh=$4.33. Independent check: NI $104,447,000 + D&A $6,796,000 + other non-cash items (deferred tax $1,677,000 + provision $16,323,000 + equity-method loss $1,733,000 + securities/loan losses $6,151,000 + BOLI gain −$562,000 − CSV increase $2,562,000 = $22,760,000) − maintenance capex $1,379,000 = $132,624,000, matching the CFO-route figure exactly (0% gap). Source: FY2025 10-K, accession 0001823608-26-000048.
2024 $4.55 ▼
OE = CFO − WC movement − SBC − maintenance capex. CFO=$124,065,000; WC movement = accrued interest receivable −5,688,000 + other assets −2,440,000 + other liabilities −16,248,000 + net LHFS (22,131,000−21,702,000=429,000) = −23,947,000 (net use of cash, added back); SBC=$5,534,000; capex=$1,775,000 (≈all maintenance). OE=124,065,000+23,947,000−5,534,000−1,775,000=$140,703,000. Diluted shares=30,936,000. OE/sh=$4.55. Source: FY2025 10-K comparative disclosure, accession 0001823608-26-000048.
2023 $3.57 ▼
OE = CFO − WC movement − SBC − maintenance capex. CFO=$117,224,000; WC movement = accrued interest receivable −14,043,000 + other assets 11,740,000 + other liabilities 181,000 + net LHFS (17,799,000−14,558,000=3,241,000) = 1,119,000; SBC=$4,687,000; capex=$1,477,000 (≈all maintenance). OE=117,224,000−1,119,000−4,687,000−1,477,000=$109,941,000. Diluted shares=30,785,000. OE/sh=$3.57. Reconciliation check (NI+D&A+other non-cash−maintenance capex) ties to CFO-route figure by construction from the filed cash-flow reconciliation; no unexplained gap. Source: FY2025 10-K comparative disclosure, accession 0001823608-26-000048.
2022 $3.92 ▼
OE = CFO − WC movement − SBC − maintenance capex. CFO=$147,322,000; WC movement = accrued interest receivable −12,621,000 + other assets 19,114,000 + other liabilities −5,767,000 + net LHFS (28,414,000−8,391,000=20,023,000) = 20,749,000; SBC=$2,682,000; capex=$1,668,000 (≈all maintenance; capex/revenue ~0.05% across the period so growth capex≈$0). OE=147,322,000−20,749,000−2,682,000−1,668,000=$122,223,000. Diluted shares=31,193,000. OE/sh=$3.92. Source: FY2022 10-K, accession 0001823608-23-000031.
2021 $2.03 ▼
OE = CFO − WC movement − SBC − maintenance capex. CFO=$70,538,000; WC movement = accrued interest receivable −4,850,000 + other assets 7,445,000 + other liabilities −11,071,000 + net LHFS (123,566,000−112,833,000=10,733,000) = 2,257,000; SBC=$1,796,000; capex=$2,396,000 (≈all maintenance). OE=70,538,000−2,257,000−1,796,000−2,396,000=$64,089,000. Diluted shares=31,512,000. OE/sh=$2.03. Source: FY2022 10-K comparative disclosure, accession 0001823608-23-000031.
2020 $2.11 ▼
OE = CFO − WC movement − SBC − maintenance capex. CFO=$65,771,000; WC movement = accrued interest receivable −4,882,000 + other assets 11,041,000 + other liabilities −4,131,000 + net LHFS (159,309,000−165,569,000=−6,260,000) = −4,232,000 (net use of cash, added back); SBC=$2,386,000; capex=$1,612,000 (≈all maintenance). OE=65,771,000+4,232,000−2,386,000−1,612,000=$66,005,000. Diluted shares=31,229,000. OE/sh=$2.11. Source: FY2020 10-K, accession 0001823608-21-000010.
2019 $1.73 ▼
OE = CFO − WC movement − SBC − maintenance capex. CFO=$83,461,000; WC movement = accrued interest receivable −4,701,000 + other assets 18,180,000 + other liabilities 12,431,000 + net LHFS (21,014,000−22,502,000=−1,488,000) = 24,422,000; SBC=$2,442,000; capex=$753,000 (≈all maintenance, bank capex immaterial vs. revenue). OE=83,461,000−24,422,000−2,442,000−753,000=$55,844,000. Diluted shares=32,205,000. OE/sh=$1.73. Source: FY2020 10-K comparative disclosure, accession 0001823608-21-000010.
2018 $1.69 ▼
Financial institution (§6.3): OE valued directly after interest, no debt subtraction. OE = CFO − working-capital movement − SBC − maintenance capex. CFO=$31,019,000; WC movement (accrued interest receivable −1,962,000 + other assets −16,575,000 + other liabilities −8,772,000 + net loans-held-for-sale activity (proceeds 4,086,000 − originations 0) = −23,223,000, i.e. a net use of cash in the period, added back); SBC=$920,000; capex=$1,427,000 (bank capex negligible vs. revenue, ~0.05% of revenue, so growth capex≈$0 and maintenance capex=total capex). OE=31,019,000+23,223,000−920,000−1,427,000=$51,895,000. Diluted shares=30,633,000. OE/sh=$1.69. Source: FY2020 10-K comparative-period disclosure, accession 0001823608-21-000010 (original FY2018 10-K not present in system).

Owner's earnings per share by fiscal year, most recent first. Tap a row to see how that figure was calculated, including the source filing.

Sales geography
United States: Northeast (New York City, New York; Boston, Massachusetts), South (Washington, D.C.), West (San Francisco and Oakland, California); deposits also gathered nationally across the United States from labor unions, political committees, nonprofits and foundations.
Historical growth strategy
Organic growth of a mission-based deposit franchise: gathering low-cost operating deposits from labor unions, political campaigns and committees, nonprofits, foundations and socially responsible businesses nationally, funded by retained earnings, and deploying them into New York multifamily and commercial real estate, commercial loans and a large securities book. Purchased loan pools (residential solar, student loans) were used to add assets and are now in run-off.
Chart analysis
No stock price history was available in this system, so a chartist-style reading of the price chart could not be produced for this analysis.
Competitors

Companies we consider competitors of AMAL. Tap a ticker to open our analysis of that company in a new tab.

Circle of competence

We don't have circle of competence information for this company yet.