AMERICAN BATTERY TECHNOLOGY Co (ABAT) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

American Battery Technology Company (fiscal year ends June 30) recycles lithium-ion batteries at a facility in McCarran, Nevada, and is developing the Tonopah Flats Lithium Project, a claystone lithium deposit in Nye and Esmeralda Counties, Nevada. It reports a single business segment. Revenue was $21.7 million in fiscal 2026, up from $4.3 million in fiscal 2025 and $0.3 million in fiscal 2024. Five customers made up 86% of fiscal 2026 revenue. What the business earns for its owners: after removing working-capital swings, subtracting share-based compensation, and subtracting maintenance-type capital spending, the company has lost money on this basis every year we can measure. Per diluted share the result was about -$1.09 (fiscal 2022), -$0.66 (2023), -$0.85 (2024), -$0.42 (2025) and -$0.52 (2026). Fiscal 2026 operating cash burn was $24.2 million, and share-based compensation of $46.5 million was the largest single cost we deduct. We treated the plant and mining-property spending of the last two years as growth spending, because revenue is scaling from almost nothing. We measure the current business from fiscal 2024, when revenue began, and the middle result of the last three years is about -$0.52 per share. Trailing owner-earnings growth in fiscal 2026 was negative (the loss per share widened from -$0.42 to -$0.52), and we assume no improvement in year one, because no signed contract or record in the filing shows costs falling below revenue. How it has been funded: not from operations. In fiscal 2026 the company raised about $65.8 million through an at-the-market share program and $10.0 million from warrant exercises, and ended the year with $49.5 million of cash and no outstanding debt. Average diluted shares rose from 80.3 million to 127.6 million in a year. Management states that cash and expected sales cover operations for at least the next 12 months. We do not add cash to the value, because the loss stream already shows how that cash is being used up. Bear case ($0 per share): the recycling operation stays unprofitable, with cash burn and share-based pay continuing to outrun revenue, and the company keeps issuing shares to stay funded. Existing shareholders are then steadily diluted and the business is worth nothing on the evidence available. There is little debt, so the company does not owe more than it is worth. Base case ($0 per share): we can name no contracted or proven source of positive owner earnings. Revenue growth is real, and the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 showed a small positive gross margin ($1.3 million on $8.2 million of revenue, against a $2.6 million gross loss a year earlier), but one quarter of gross profit does not cover operating costs, share-based pay, and plant investment. Lithium-project economics from the Tonopah Flats studies depend on financing, permitting, and construction that have not yet happened, so they are excluded. Bull case ($0 per share): even if recycling volumes keep rising as they did this year, we could point to no evidence that owner earnings turn positive after share-based pay. The company's own filing describes the Tonopah Flats property as an exploration-stage property. Anything above zero would rest on results that have not yet occurred. What would make this estimate wrong: a run of quarters where recycling gross profit grows enough to cover operating expenses and share-based pay, or a signed offtake or financing for Tonopah Flats that funds itself. The company also has about $179 million of federal tax losses that could shelter future profit, but that only matters if profit arrives. We could not itemise every non-cash item in fiscal 2026 cash flow (about $2.6 million remains unexplained in our cross-check), which does not change the conclusion.