$0.00
$0.01
bear $0.00
base $0.00
bull $0.01
margin of safety $0.00
market price* $0.12
Yellowstone Group Ltd is a Sydney, Australia-based financial consulting business, incorporated in July 2024 and run by its sole director and officer, Ms. Jianing Yang, who owns about 89% of the 22.4 million shares. It prepares unaudited quarterly and annual financial statements and reports for small Australian and New Zealand companies (turnover under $1 million) that are listed or seeking to list on the US OTC markets. It does not audit. Revenue was $6,500 in its first partial year to March 2025 and $40,667 in the year to March 2026, all from three clients; only one of them is on an annual agreement, the others contract quarter by quarter. Revenue in the June 2026 quarter was $10,166, up from $7,667 a year earlier, but the net loss widened to $4,591. Earnings. The business has not produced positive owner cash in either year. Operating cash flow looked positive ($10,981 in fiscal 2026) only because bills to vendors, customer prepayments and advances from the director rose; stripping out those timing items leaves an owner loss of about $8,800 in fiscal 2026 (about $0.0004 per share) and about $4,700 in the first partial year. The core problem is structural: the costs of being a public company itself (audit, transfer agent, legal and filing fees, $51,494 of overhead in fiscal 2026) are larger than the revenue the business earns. There is no stock compensation and essentially no capital spending. There is no interest-bearing debt; the only borrowing is $7,534 advanced by the director, interest-free and repayable on demand. At June 30, 2026 the company held $44,126 of cash against total liabilities of $37,600, most of which are payables and customer prepayments already handled in the cash-flow figures. Base case. Revenue continues at roughly the current three-client level, with losses of about $9,000 a year, consuming the offering cash over roughly three years, after which the business either is funded again by its controlling shareholder or winds down. No growth is credited: the client count is tiny, two of three clients are not under annual contracts, and adding clients is a hope, not a demonstrated multi-year process. The business is worth about negative $24,000 on that path; adding cash less the director loan (about $36,600) leaves roughly $12,600, or about $0.0006 per share. Bear case. With 100% of revenue from three clients, losing one of them is the obvious evidenced risk. Using the June 2026 quarter's loss rate and one lost client, losses run about $25,000 a year until the cash is gone in under two years. The business is worth about negative $67,000, and after the net cash the company is worth about negative $30,000 (about negative $0.0013 per share): it would owe more to its own running costs than it holds, and continuing would require new money from the director or dilution of outside shareholders. Bull case. The June 2026 quarter showed revenue up about a third year on year. If that client momentum carries through and the company signs enough annual agreements to cover its listing costs, it could earn around $10,000 a year for a decade, worth about $74,000 plus $36,600 of net cash, or roughly $0.005 per share. This depends on client wins that have not happened yet. Margin-of-safety price. We are fairly sure of the earnings level: it is negative, and the reason (public-company costs exceeding the fees of a three-client consultancy) is plain in the filings and is not going away. The worst plausible outcome is the loss of a client or two, at which point the company depends entirely on its controlling owner to keep paying the bills; outside shareholders have no say, as one person holds about 89% of the shares and makes every decision, including related-party funding, without independent directors. If we are wrong about the cost base or client retention, the shares are worth little more than their slice of about $37,000 of net cash, less than $0.002 per share. Nothing is paid to shareholders during the holding period, and there is no dated catalyst. The margin-of-safety price is set close to what the remaining cash would be worth to an outside holder after a few more years of losses, which is about $0.0002 per share.