NCR Voyix Corp (VYX) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

WHAT THE BUSINESS IS. NCR Voyix is what remains of the old NCR Corporation after it spun off its ATM business as NCR Atleos in October 2023 and sold its Digital Banking business in 2024 for about $2.5 billion. It sells point-of-sale and self-checkout software, hardware, installation and support to grocers, retailers and restaurants. Its products include Voyix POS, Voyix Self-Checkout and Aloha Next by Voyix, and it also earns payment-processing fees from restaurants. 2025 revenue was $2.69 billion: roughly 70% from the Retail segment and 30% from Restaurants, with 61% booked in the United States. Retail is shrinking. Its revenue fell 6% in 2025, and segment profit fell 9% after a 7% drop in 2024. Restaurants revenue slipped 1% in 2025, but segment profit rose 6%. Combined segment profit has been roughly flat across 2023-2025. A BIG CHANGE UNDER WAY. Under an August 2024 agreement, Ennoconn now designs, builds, warrants and ships the point-of-sale and self-checkout hardware. NCR Voyix acts as its sales agent and books only a commission. The changeover began in January 2026 and was expected to finish in April 2026, and the company has disclosed delays. This accounting change is the main reason second-quarter 2026 revenue was $523 million, against $660 million a year earlier. The drop in revenue overstates the drop in profit. It also makes the company dependent on a single hardware supplier. EARNING POWER. Reported operating cash flow was negative in 2024 (-$132 million) and 2025 (-$210 million). The separation explains this. In 2025 the company paid $284 million of taxes on the 2024 Digital Banking gain. It also paid $37 million on legacy environmental cleanup, $26 million on a restricted-cash settlement and $26 million of pension contributions. We removed these timing and working-capital swings. We charged stock compensation ($34 million) and all capital spending ($165 million, mostly software development) as real costs. Because revenue is falling, we treated none of that spending as growth investment. On that basis the continuing business earned about $97 million for its owners in 2025, after $57 million of interest, or about $154 million before paying lenders. 2025 is the only clean full year in the company's current form. Earlier years describe a business more than twice as large that included the ATM and banking units, so we do not use them. Amortization of acquired intangibles is small ($25 million in 2025), so no material wasting asset needs a separate charge. The 2025 figures still include $124 million of transformation and restructuring costs. The company has booked such costs in each of the last three years, so the base case treats them as ongoing. STARTING POINT. Growth in the latest year cannot be measured meaningfully because 2024 is distorted by the divestiture. First-half 2026 cash earnings ran about 6% below first-half 2025. So the base case starts at $145 million, below the 2025 level of $154 million, and credits no growth. None is contracted, and none has been shown over a long record. WHAT IT OWES. All cases discount at 6%. As of mid-2026 the company owes $1.105 billion of senior notes: $650 million at 5.0% due 2028, $403 million at 5.125% due 2029 and $52 million at 5.25% due 2030. It also has $19 million of finance leases. Ahead of the common shares sits $207 million of convertible preferred stock. That preferred converts at about $17.37 a share, above every case value, so we count it as a claim. We also count the $111 million Kalamazoo River environmental reserve, which is to be paid out through the 2030s. Against this we credit about $137 million of the $237 million cash balance at June 30, 2026, holding the rest as working cash. The below-6% coupons are worth about $20 million until the notes mature. Net claims come to about $1.29 billion. BASE CASE ($4.73). Restaurants gains keep offsetting Retail erosion, as they did in 2023-2025. Cash flow before interest holds at about $145 million a year for ten years. After that it declines 3% a year as the installed base of checkout systems slowly erodes to cloud-native competitors. Nothing we can name supports growth that far out. The business is worth about $1.94 billion and owes about $1.29 billion, leaving about $655 million for shareholders. Interest of roughly $57 million is covered more than twice. BEAR CASE (-$3.57). Retail keeps shrinking at its 2024-2025 pace, Restaurants stop growing, and the single-source hardware arrangement adds friction. Cash flow before interest starts at $130 million, falls 5% a year to about $82 million by year ten, then 8% a year after that. The notes coming due in 2028-2030 have to be refinanced against shrinking cash flow. We assume rates near 8%, which adds about $165 million of cost in today's money. The Kalamazoo reserve doubles to about $222 million, which the company itself says is possible. The business would be worth about $1.09 billion against about $1.58 billion owed. In this case the company owes roughly $494 million more than it is worth, and lenders rather than shareholders would end up owning it. BULL CASE ($12.17). The hardware transition completes, Restaurants profit growth continues, and the transformation program winds down, so restructuring spending roughly halves. Cash flow before interest rises from $155 million to $200 million by 2029, holds there, and declines 1% a year after year ten. The business is worth about $2.97 billion against $1.29 billion owed, leaving about $1.69 billion for shareholders. MARGIN-OF-SAFETY PRICE ($2.25). The median value is $4.73, but the range is wide. In the 10th-percentile outcome shareholders get nothing, because $1.1 billion of notes must be refinanced in 2028-2030. A 20% annual return over about three years as value moves toward the base case implies a price of about $2.75. The margin-of-safety price is set lower to allow for the real chance that the bear case plays out. WHAT COULD MAKE THIS WRONG. On the upside, restructuring costs may actually fall away, or Restaurants profit growth may persist. On the downside, Retail decline could accelerate, the Ennoconn changeover could stumble, refinancing terms could worsen, or the environmental bill could grow. We could not split 2024 cash flow cleanly between the continuing business and the businesses that were sold. CHANGES SINCE OUR PREVIOUS ANALYSIS. We previously started from a range of adjusted cash-flow estimates and applied higher discount rates to riskier outcomes. We now start from 2025 cash earnings rebuilt from the audited statements, value every case at the same 6% rate, and reflect risk through the cases themselves. We now also count the convertible preferred and the Kalamazoo reserve as claims ahead of common shareholders. The company's own 2025 adjusted free-cash-flow measure was $27 million. As a result the base value rose from $3.31 to $4.73 and the bull value fell from $15.94 to $12.17. The bear case remains below zero.