vTv Therapeutics Inc. (VTVT) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

vTv Therapeutics is a clinical-stage drug developer with no approved products and no product revenue. Its lead candidate, cadisegliatin, is an oral pill being tested alongside insulin in type 1 diabetes. It received Breakthrough Therapy designation in 2021 after a positive Phase 2 study, and the Phase 3 trial (CATT1) resumed in May 2025, with enrollment expected to finish in the third quarter of 2026. The company has lost money every year since it started. What the numbers show. Cash used in operations was $25.3 million in 2025, $25.3 million in 2024 and $19.1 million in 2023. After removing working-capital swings and share-based pay, the business consumed about $30.9 million in 2025, $22.6 million in 2024 and $25.1 million in 2023, or roughly $3.67, $3.92 and $12.02 per Class A share in those years. There is no positive earnings level to build a valuation on, so this analysis values what the company owns today: its cash, less what it is expected to spend before the Phase 3 result is known. The per-share figures for 2023 are on a small Class A share base because most of the equity was then held in other units, so they should not be compared across years. Cash and equivalents were $88.9 million at the end of 2025 and $86.6 million at June 30, 2026. In January 2026 licensee Newsoara paid a $20.0 million upfront fee for worldwide rights to the company's PDE4 inhibitor HPP737; without that payment, cash would have fallen by about $22 million in the first half of 2026, or roughly $45 million a year. A large private placement in September 2025 raised $80.0 million. Share count. We use about 12.4 million shares: 3.94 million Class A shares outstanding as shown on the annual report cover in March 2026, plus 8.47 million pre-funded warrants that convert at a token price. Another 5.24 million warrants (exercise price $22.71) and about 1.0 million options (average exercise price $25.18) exist; those prices are far above the values below, so they are left out. Any new share sale would reduce the per-share values. The three cases. Each case is cash on hand at June 30, 2026, less spending until the Phase 3 readout, which we assume comes by the end of 2027 (the company has not given a date; it says cash should fund operations beyond the readout), less closing costs, discounted at 6%. Nothing is credited for approval of cadisegliatin, for royalties, or for future milestone payments, because none of these has yet happened or is contracted to be earned. - Bear ($0.12 per share): spending runs at about $50 million a year, somewhat above the recent pace, leaving about $11.6 million, and $10 million of shutdown costs follow a failed trial. Little is left for shareholders. - Base ($1.60 per share): spending of about $40 million a year, leaving about $26.6 million, less $5 million of closing costs. That leaves $21.6 million for shareholders before discounting. - Bull ($3.07 per share): spending held near $30 million a year, a little above 2025's pace, leaving about $41.6 million, with no closing costs deducted. What was left out and why. Newsoara owes up to $50.0 million in development milestones and $65.0 million in sales milestones, plus mid-single-digit royalties, but they depend on Newsoara's own development and sales and have not been earned. The value of a successful Phase 3 and approval is also excluded. That is the real upside for this stock, but the evidence so far (a positive Phase 2 study, Breakthrough designation, an ongoing Phase 3) does not tell us the odds or the size of the prize. A positive readout would change the picture materially, and the warrants at $22.71 would bring in cash if the share price rose above that level; none of that is counted here. What could make this wrong. Spending could be higher than assumed as the Phase 3 and additional required studies proceed; the readout could come later than end-2027, which costs roughly $20 million per half year at the base pace; or the company could sell more shares, which dilutes holders. Revenue reported in the first half of 2026 ($36.8 million) reflects the Newsoara agreement and is not product sales, so it is not treated as recurring. For the first half of 2026 we relied on the reported cash balances and the disclosed $20.0 million upfront payment rather than a line-by-line cash flow.