$4.70
$36.00
bear $4.70
base $21.30
bull $36.00
margin of safety $9.50
market price* $38.64
Bristow Group flies helicopters (214 aircraft in 15 countries at the end of 2025). In 2025 about 66% of revenue came from Offshore Energy Services (crew transport to oil and gas platforms and rigs, mainly the U.S. Gulf of America, Brazil, Nigeria, the UK and Norway), 26% from Government Services (search-and-rescue for the UK, Ireland, the Netherlands and the U.S.), and 8% from other work such as an Australian regional airline and dry-leased helicopters. The UK search-and-rescue contract, renewed for ten years in July 2022, alone was about 19% of 2025 revenue, and the filing notes the UK government can cancel it for a fee. A new ten-year, roughly $670 million Irish Coast Guard contract went fully live on February 1, 2026. How we measured earnings. We take cash from operations, remove swings in working capital, subtract share-based pay as a real cost, and subtract the part of aircraft spending needed to keep the fleet running (spending tied to revenue growth is treated as growth spending). Per diluted share this gives: $1.69 (year to March 2021), $2.66 (year to March 2022), about -$0.01 (2023), -$2.85 (2024) and $2.28 (2025). We start the record at the 2020 merger that created today's company, and we leave out the nine-month transition period of 2022. The swings are large because Bristow bought aircraft heavily in 2023 to 2025 (capital spending of $81.5 million, $255.4 million and $142.0 million), and our method treats most of that as upkeep. Working capital has also absorbed cash each year, mostly inventory build and, in 2025, start-up costs on new government contracts; we removed those as our method requires, so the reader should know they flatter the figures somewhat. Our starting level is the median of these five years, $1.69 per share, roughly $50 million a year. The most recent year rose sharply from a negative 2024, so the true growth rate is not meaningful, and we assume none for year one. Base case, about $21.30 per share. Earnings stay at $1.69, plus about $0.10 from the Irish contract (about $67 million of annual revenue at 2025's earnings margin of roughly 4.6%), so about $1.79 per share. That is held flat for 15 years, then declines to zero over the next 15. Nothing else is credited: no oil-market recovery, no new contract wins beyond those signed, and no margin gains. The long life is supported by production platforms that stay in place for decades and by governments outsourcing search-and-rescue on ten-year contracts; the fade reflects that we cannot name what replaces them beyond that. Bear case, about $4.70 per share. Aircraft spending stays near the 2024 to 2025 average of about $199 million a year (against $204.6 million of 2025 cash flow before working capital and share pay), and the company carries more debt: total debt was $671.5 million at the end of 2025, and in January 2026 it issued $500 million of 6.75% senior secured notes due 2033 to replace its 6.875% notes. Owner earnings settle near $0.50 per share for ten years and then decline to zero over ten more. Debt is not subtracted from value in any case; leverage is reflected here. Bull case, about $36.00 per share. Earnings return to the $2.66 level of the year to March 2022, plus the Irish contract, about $2.75 per share, held for 20 years and then declining to zero over 15. What could prove this wrong. First-half 2026 results show revenue up about 10% (to $800.5 million) but cash from operations down to $32.8 million from $98.4 million a year earlier, with capital spending of $108.7 million; if that persists it points toward the bear case. Aircraft spending has been lumpy, so our maintenance-versus-growth split is a judgement, and other reasonable splits would move the starting level materially. On the other side, a cancelled or lost major contract, including the UK search-and-rescue contract, would hurt more than we assume; a sustained drop in spending by offshore energy customers is the largest exposure. The nine-month 2022 transition period, when operating cash flow was negative, is not in our record.