VIASAT INC (VSAT) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Viasat's economics have been dominated by the cost of building its satellite network. Owner earnings - operating cash flow less capital spending and stock compensation - were negative in nine of the last ten fiscal years, about $3.7 billion cumulatively from 2017 through 2025, while the share count nearly tripled to roughly 137 million and borrowings reached $6.4 billion against $1.7 billion of cash. Fiscal 2026 was the first positive year, roughly $3.83 per share, but it was flattered by a one-time $420 million settlement receipt; underlying generation is nearer $100-200 million, in line with management's own outlook for the current year. Everything hinges on whether capital spending, still near $1 billion, falls toward the roughly $400 million the network needs simply to be maintained now that the two large new satellites have launched. The bear case assumes it does not, and that consumer broadband keeps eroding against low-orbit competitors: the enterprise would then be worth less than its debt and the shares close to worthless, with only the defense unit and scarce L-band spectrum leaving a residual. The base case assumes modest growth in aviation and government connectivity with spending falling to about $650 million, discounted at 10%, giving roughly $40 per share after deducting $4.7 billion of net borrowings. The bull case assumes the new satellites are fully monetized, aviation compounds at mid-single digits, spending falls to about $520 million and the defense unit is separated at a premium, giving roughly $78. Because the downside is a genuine wipeout rather than a soft floor, confidence in the base case is only around half, so the margin-of-safety price of about $24, some 40% below the base case, applies only once the cash-flow inflection described in the business trigger has been demonstrated.