$2.14
$3.87
bear $2.14
base $3.02
bull $3.87
margin of safety $1.65
market price* $9.96
Vir Biotechnology develops antibody and RNA medicines. Its lead effort is a two-drug combination, tobevibart plus elebsiran, for chronic hepatitis delta, now in three Phase 3 trials (ECLIPSE 1, 2 and 3). It also has masked T-cell engager cancer drugs licensed from Sanofi, led by VIR-5500 for prostate cancer, which is in Phase 1. Its only authorized product to date is the COVID-19 antibody sotrovimab; the FDA revoked its emergency authorization in December 2024 and the company no longer expects meaningful revenue from it. What the business earns today: nothing. After subtracting working-capital swings and stock compensation, the company burned about $4.32 per share in 2023, $3.29 in 2024 and $3.06 in 2025 (roughly $423 million in 2025). The 2021 and 2022 profits came from the COVID antibody collaboration with GSK and are not a guide to the current business, so we measure from 2023, after the company shrank its research footprint. Discounting a permanent loss would make the shares worthless, but the spending is a choice, so we value the company instead as the cash it holds, less what it must spend to reach its next decisive events, plus signed payments. Cash and investments were $781.6 million at December 31, 2025. The June 2026 quarterly report shows operating cash use of only $9.1 million for the first half, against $198.3 million a year earlier, because the quarter includes about $239 million of revenue that we attribute to the $240 million of upfront cash under the February 2026 Astellas agreement for VIR-5500. Adding that back, underlying spending was roughly $249 million for the half, about $125 million a quarter, up from about $98 million a quarter in 2025 as the Phase 3 program peaked. We estimate cash and investments at about $772 million on June 30, 2026. That is our own estimate: we could not read the balance sheet for that date, and it leaves out the $75 million Astellas share purchase, whose completion we could not confirm. Base case, about $3.02 per share: spending stays near $125 million a quarter for three more quarters, through the ECLIPSE 2 and 3 results expected in the first quarter of 2027 (ECLIPSE 1 is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026), about $375 million. Astellas is due a further $20 million when manufacturing technology transfer finishes, expected in the second or third quarter of 2027; we count about $16 million, assuming Sanofi's 20% share of such proceeds applies. This spending level is higher than 2025's, so no improvement over the trailing year is assumed. Nothing is credited for the trials succeeding, an approval, or sales. The trials are ongoing, positive results are not yet in hand, and no revenue exists to project. That part is valued at zero. Bear case, about $2.14 per share: spending runs near $150 million a quarter for the same three quarters, and the trials do not lead to a product. We add $35 million of wind-down cost, similar to the $35.0 million restructuring charge the company took in 2024. No Astellas milestone is counted. Bull case, about $3.87 per share: the cost cuts already achieved (research spending fell from $506 million to $456 million and administrative spending from $119 million to $92 million in 2025) continue, with spending near $110 million a quarter, and both the Astellas share purchase and the $20 million milestone arrive, about $75 million and $16 million net. Success in the trials is still not counted, because it cannot be supported by anything in the filings today. These figures are close together because they are essentially the value of the company's cash after its planned spending. If the ECLIPSE trials succeed, the shares are probably worth much more, and the deals with Norgine (Europe, Australia and New Zealand) and Astellas show partners are willing to pay for the assets. If they fail, the cash cushion is what remains. Our cases do not attempt to price that outcome. What would make this estimate wrong: spending above $150 million a quarter, or the Sanofi and Astellas proceeds being shared differently than we read. The company states its cash should fund operations for at least the next 12 months. Note on the numbers: cash flow was rebuilt from the filings and matches the reported statements. Per-share figures use about 139.5 million shares outstanding as of February 2026.