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UTG INC (UTGN) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Margin of safety$15.68 Updated
$34.85 $91.36
bear $34.85 base $46.94 bull $91.36 margin of safety $15.68 market price* $58.00
UTG is a small Kentucky-based life insurance holding company whose insurance book is closed to meaningful new business and is slowly running off. Premiums net of reinsurance no longer cover benefits and operating costs, so essentially all of the company's profit now comes from its investment portfolio: about $431 million of investments against $232 million of shareholders' equity, roughly two-thirds of it held in equity securities. That makes reported earnings extremely erratic. Owner earnings per share were $0.62 in 2023, $15.80 in 2024 and $5.42 in 2025, moving with the market value of the stocks the company owns rather than with insurance results. Over the past decade owner earnings averaged about $4.70 per share while book value compounded at close to 14% a year, an excellent record but one built on a concentrated bet: roughly 35% of invested assets are tied to oil and gas, and four holdings account for about four-fifths of that exposure. The bear case assumes the portfolio sustains a return on equity of only about 4% with the oil and gas positions derating sharply, and weighs that weak earnings stream against the market value of the securities the company already owns; it yields roughly $35 per share, well under the $73.90 of book value. The base case assumes a sustainable return on equity near 7%, closer to the median of the last ten years than to the flattering average, and yields roughly $47 per share. The bull case assumes the company keeps earning the 10% return on equity it has averaged since it began marking its stocks through earnings, and yields roughly $91 per share. Several disclosed facts deserve weight: insiders control about three-quarters of the shares, no dividend has been paid and none is planned, the shares change hands thinly over the counter, and the company restated its 2024 results. We anchor on the bear case rather than the base case, because what drives value here is a concentrated securities portfolio rather than a stable operating business, and we take a 55% discount to it, reflecting roughly 60% confidence, for a margin-of-safety price of $15.68.
Fiscal yearOwner's earningsMethodology
2025 $5.42 ▼
UTG, Inc. is an insurance holding company (life insurer), so owner earnings are measured on a net-income basis: net income available to common shareholders, with no SBC deduction (already expensed in net income) and no net-cash bridge (policy reserves are operating funding, not capital structure). Reported cash flow from operations was negative (2025: -6,520,014 USD) because the closed life block pays out more in benefits than it collects in premiums; a CFO-minus-capex formula is therefore not meaningful for this filer. Raw inputs, all USD and whole shares: net income attributable to common shareholders 17,079,919 (consolidated net income 17,166,898 less 86,979 attributable to noncontrolling interest); diluted weighted-average shares outstanding 3,154,183. Owner earnings per diluted share = 17,079,919 / 3,154,183 = 5.4150. EPS tie-out: company-reported basic and diluted income per share 5.42, matching to the cent. No preferred stock outstanding. Context: revenue before net investment gains was 18,954,388 against total benefits and expenses of 20,478,258, i.e. the insurance operation itself ran a pre-tax loss of about 1,523,870; the entire profit came from 23,391,331 of net investment gains (of which 21,577,231 was the change in fair value of equity securities). Stock-based compensation was 291,401 (not deducted, per the net-income basis). Total UTG shareholders equity at 12/31/2025 was 232,242,902 on 3,142,470 shares issued and outstanding = 73.90 per share book value. Source accession 0000832480-26-000011 (FY2025 Form 10-K, filed 2026-03-25).
2024 $15.80 ▼
UTG, Inc. is an insurance holding company (life insurer), so owner earnings are measured on a net-income basis: net income available to common shareholders, with no SBC deduction (already expensed in net income) and no net-cash bridge (policy reserves are operating funding, not capital structure). Reported cash flow from operations was negative (2024: -1,568,091 USD). Raw inputs, all USD and whole shares, on the RESTATED basis: net income attributable to common shareholders 50,006,085 (consolidated net income 50,105,751 less 99,666 attributable to noncontrolling interest); diluted weighted-average shares outstanding 3,165,541. Owner earnings per diluted share = 50,006,085 / 3,165,541 = 15.7970. EPS tie-out: restated basic and diluted income per share 15.80, matching to the cent. Restatement: FY2024 was originally reported at 49,301,515 USD net income to common and 15.57 diluted EPS in accession 0000832480-25-000006; correction of an error on adoption of ASU 2018-12 (LDTI) increased future policy benefits by -7,901,443, deferred income taxes by 1,659,304 and net income to common by 704,570 (+0.23 per share). The restated figure is used because it is the currently authoritative one and it ties to the restated EPS. No preferred stock outstanding. Caution on interpretation: 63,295,877 USD of pre-tax income this year was net investment gains (56,839,751 of which was the change in fair value of equity securities) against only 21,617,744 of revenue before investment gains, so this figure reflects portfolio mark-to-market and is not a run-rate. Source accession 0000832480-26-000011 (FY2025 Form 10-K, filed 2026-03-25), Consolidated Statements of Operations comparative column and the error-correction note.
2023 $0.62 ▼
UTG, Inc. is an insurance holding company (life insurer), so owner earnings are measured on a net-income basis: net income available to common shareholders, with no SBC deduction (already expensed in net income) and no net-cash bridge (policy reserves are operating funding, not capital structure). Reported cash flow from operations was negative (2023: -9,785,373 USD). Raw inputs, all USD and whole shares: net income attributable to common shareholders 1,956,695 (consolidated net income 2,070,092 less 113,397 attributable to noncontrolling interest); diluted weighted-average shares outstanding 3,176,757. Owner earnings per diluted share = 1,956,695 / 3,176,757 = 0.6159. EPS tie-out: company-reported basic and diluted income per share was 0.62, matching to the cent. No preferred stock outstanding. Data note: the FY2024 Form 10-K (accession 0000832480-25-000006) carries a 2023 net-income figure of 2,656,610 USD, 699,915 higher, arising from presentation changes on adoption of ASU 2018-12 (LDTI); the originally filed and EPS-tied 1,956,695 is used here because it is the figure that reconciles to the 0.62 diluted EPS the company reported for 2023. Source accession 0001140361-24-016714 (FY2023 Form 10-K, filed 2024-04-01), Consolidated Statements of Operations.
2022 $10.81 ▼
UTG, Inc. is an insurance holding company (life insurer), so owner earnings are measured on a net-income basis: net income available to common shareholders, with no SBC deduction (already expensed in net income) and no net-cash bridge (policy reserves are operating funding, not capital structure). Reported cash flow from operations was again negative (2022: -5,334,319 USD), so a CFO-based formula is not meaningful for this filer. Raw inputs, all USD and whole shares: net income attributable to common shareholders 34,258,005 (consolidated net income 34,364,346 less 106,341 attributable to noncontrolling interest); diluted weighted-average shares outstanding 3,167,719. Owner earnings per diluted share = 34,258,005 / 3,167,719 = 10.8147. EPS tie-out: company-reported basic and diluted income per share was 10.81, matching to the cent. No preferred stock outstanding. Caution on interpretation: 63,295,877 USD of the 2024 and 43.9M USD of 2022 pre-tax income came from net investment gains; earnings in this year were driven mainly by mark-to-market and realized gains on a concentrated equity portfolio rather than insurance underwriting, so this figure is not a run-rate. Source accession 0001140361-24-016714 (FY2023 Form 10-K, filed 2024-04-01), Consolidated Statements of Operations comparative column; originally reported in accession 0000832480-23-000013.
2021 $3.05 ▼
UTG, Inc. is an insurance holding company (life insurer), so owner earnings are measured on a net-income basis rather than CFO minus capex minus SBC: net income available to common shareholders, with no SBC deduction (already expensed in net income) and no net-cash bridge (policy reserves are operating funding, not capital structure). Note that reported cash flow from operations is negative every year (2021: -12,453,435 USD) because the closed life block pays out more in benefits than it collects in premiums, which makes a cash-flow-based owner-earnings formula meaningless for this filer. Raw inputs, all USD and whole shares: net income attributable to common shareholders 9,663,063 (consolidated net income 9,755,160 less 92,097 attributable to noncontrolling interest); diluted weighted-average shares outstanding 3,171,919. Owner earnings per diluted share = 9,663,063 / 3,171,919 = 3.0464. EPS tie-out: company-reported basic and diluted income per share was 3.05, which matches to the cent. There is no preferred stock outstanding, so no preferred dividend adjustment is required. Source accession 0000832480-22-000005 (FY2021 Form 10-K, filed 2022-03-25), Consolidated Statements of Operations.

Owner's earnings per share by fiscal year, most recent first. Tap a row to see how that figure was calculated, including the source filing.

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