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INVESCO DB US DOLLAR INDEX BEARISH FUND (UDN) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Margin of safety$0.00 ComplexityAverage Updated
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN) is not an operating company. It is an exchange-traded commodity pool with no products, customers, revenue or earnings. It holds short positions in futures contracts on the U.S. Dollar Index, along with United States Treasury obligations and money-market funds as collateral. The fund gains when the U.S. dollar falls against a basket of major currencies (the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc). It loses when the dollar rises. Its manager, Invesco, charges a management fee of 0.75% of net assets per year. That fee is the fund's main ongoing cost. The fund had about $138.7 million of net assets at the end of 2025. Because there is no business generating cash, an earnings-based valuation does not apply. What a share is worth is the fund's net asset value. At December 31, 2025 that was $18.23 per share, and the market price was $18.25. Over the last three year-ends the value has moved between $16.73 and $18.50 per share. It also paid out $0.54 to $0.96 a year as a return of capital. In 2025 the fund earned about $2.04 per share (up 12%) as the dollar weakened. In 2024 it lost $0.80 per share as the dollar strengthened. We use the same figure of $18.23 for the bear, base and bull cases. We cannot name any evidenced, business-specific driver that tells us where the dollar will go, and forecasting currencies would be speculation rather than valuation. The 0.75% annual fee is the only cost we can identify. It is already deducted in the reported net asset value. Shares can be created or redeemed at net asset value through authorized participants, so the market price tends to stay very close to that value. The cases do not diverge, but the risk is real. If the dollar strengthens, the fund's value falls, as it did in 2024. The fund produces no earnings or dividends that compound in value. We see no basis for a 20% annual return on a position whose gains depend only on a currency moving in one direction, so we do not set a margin-of-safety price. This is a hedge or a currency view, not a value investment. The value would be wrong if, for example, the dollar's level had moved substantially since December 31, 2025. We used that date because it is the latest audited figure. We did not update it for the second quarter of 2026.

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Sales geography
United States: shares trade on the NYSE Arca exchange; the fund does not sell products or services and holds U.S. Dollar Index futures, with exposure to the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc
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