Tyra Biosciences, Inc. (TYRA) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Tyra Biosciences is a Carlsbad, California drug developer with no approved products and no revenue. Its work centres on FGFR3, a growth-signalling receptor that drives many bladder-lining (urothelial) cancers and nearly all cases of achondroplasia, the most common form of dwarfism. Its lead pill, dabogratinib (formerly TYRA-300), is in three Phase 2 trials: SURF302 in intermediate-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (initial three-month complete-response data were expected by mid-2026), BEACH301 in children with achondroplasia (first growth-velocity and safety results expected in the second half of 2026), and SURF303 in low-grade upper tract urothelial cancer (first patient expected in 2026). Two earlier programs, TYRA-430 (FGF19-driven liver cancer) and TYRA-200 (FGFR2-driven bile duct cancer), are in Phase 1. In achondroplasia it would enter a field where BioMarin's Voxzogo and Ascendis' TransCon CNP are already approved and BridgeBio's infigratinib has reported Phase 3 results. What the business earns: every year since its founding the company has consumed cash, and the amount has risen every year. Counting stock-based pay as a cost and removing working-capital timing, owner earnings were about -$56M in 2022, -$71M in 2023, -$93M in 2024 and -$122M in 2025 (-$2.04 per share). The first half of 2026 ran faster still: operating expenses of $91M in six months ($49M in the second quarter alone), roughly $182M a year including about $36M of stock pay, as SURF303 starts up and BEACH301 enrolls. Excluding interest income, the burn grew about 27% in 2025; our starting rate is about 37% above 2025 because two reported 2026 quarters already show it, not because we expect further acceleration. The 2022-2025 median burn (about $82M a year) no longer describes the company, so we use the 2026 level that two quarters confirm. What it owns: at June 30, 2026 the company held $353.9M of cash and marketable securities, after raising $147.9M from a share sale in the first half of 2026, and it has no borrowings. Leases, payables and accrued costs are ordinary operating items already reflected in the cash burn. There are about 66.0M shares including pre-funded warrants. How we value it: no approval, partnership, royalty or signed contract gives any part of the pipeline a cash value we can point to today, so we credit none. Trial success is possible, but it is not in hand. The value of the shares is therefore the cash, less what the company will spend of it, with spending discounted at 6%. Interest the cash earns is left out of the spending stream because the cash itself is counted at full value. Stock-based pay is charged as dilution of about 4% a year (the share count rose 4.2% in 2025, a year in which the company raised only about $8M from share issuance) rather than as a dollar cost on top of the cash spending. The roughly 14.4M employee options carry an average exercise price of $16.54, far above any of our values, so they are not counted as shares. Bear case: spending starts at the second-quarter 2026 pace (about $158M a year in cash) and keeps rising at the roughly 27% a year the company has shown, using up the cash by around the second quarter of 2028 with the programs still needing money. Present cost of the program spending about $335M, no debt, cash $354M: equity worth about $19M, or $0.27 per share. Base case: spending stays at the first-half 2026 pace (about $146M a year in cash) and the company, as it has after every earlier raise (the 2021 IPO, the 2024 private placement and the 2026 offering), uses its full balance to advance the three Phase 2 trials, running out around the end of 2028. Present cost of spending about $330M, no debt, cash $354M: equity worth about $24M, or $0.33 per share. That small positive figure is only the value of spending the money gradually rather than all at once. Bull case: spending holds at the first-half 2026 pace through the end of 2027, the period the company said its pre-2026 cash would fund, and the roughly $135M left at that point is credited at full value, on the view that any later spending would follow only trial results strong enough to justify it. Present cost of spending about $210M, no debt, cash $354M: equity worth about $144M, or $2.06 per share. What would make this wrong: the valuation is almost entirely a question of how much of the cash gets spent. Positive dabogratinib data followed by a partnership with upfront cash, or an approval, would add value none of the cases include; a decision to stop spending and return cash would leave far more for shareholders than the base case. In the other direction, if trials disappoint and the company keeps spending to find a new use for the money, even the bull case is too high. On what is evidenced today the shares appear to be worth well under a dollar; anything above that is a bet on trial outcomes.