TriLinc Global Impact Fund LLC (TRLC) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

TriLinc Global Impact Fund is a non-traded fund that lends to small and mid-sized businesses in developing economies, mostly through direct loans and trade finance. At the end of 2025 it held about $262 million of loans, with roughly 47.8 million units outstanding and a reported net asset value of $5.71 per unit. The units do not trade on an exchange, and the fund's own unit repurchase program now only covers requests tied to death or disability of a holder. What the fund actually earns in cash is far smaller than what it reports. In 2025 the fund booked $18.5 million of investment income, but $16.2 million of that was interest paid in kind, meaning added to loan balances rather than collected. Expenses were $13.5 million (including $5.6 million of asset management fees and $6.1 million of professional fees), leaving reported net investment income of $5.0 million, or about $0.10 per unit. Cash from operations was roughly zero. We therefore value the fund on cash it has actually generated, not on accrued income or the reported net asset value. Because it is a lender, its operating cash flow includes loan repayments and new loans; we removed only small working-capital swings, and there is no stock compensation or capital spending. On that basis cash generated per unit was about -$0.38 in 2021, $0.02 in 2022, $0.38 in 2023 (helped by loan repayments and settlements), $0.09 in 2024 and about -$0.03 in 2025. We use 2022 to 2025, the period since the fund's borrower problems surfaced and distributions stopped, and the median is about $0.06 per unit. Cash flow fell in the latest year, and we assume no rebound in the first year of any case. Ten-year history was not available in structured filings before 2021, so earlier years were not used. Why this differs from the reported value: the fund has not paid regular distributions since mid-2023 (apart from special payments in February and March 2024), repaid its credit facilities in full in August 2023 after a default triggered by its auditor's resignation, and reports that many borrowers are still struggling to recover. Net asset value has drifted from $7.19 at the end of 2021 to $5.71 at the end of 2025 ($5.70 at June 30, 2026), and the valuations are set by the fund's advisor. We could not verify from the filings that the loans will be collected at anything near their carrying values, so we do not credit that recovery in any case. The largest single investment is about 27% of the portfolio. Bear case, about $0.25 per unit: cash generation stays near zero, as in 2025 and 2021 to 2022, with only occasional collections, and fees and professional costs keep absorbing most of what comes in. There is no debt to subtract, but the fund's liquidity is thin. Base case, about $1.20 per unit: cash generation of roughly $0.10 per unit a year, between the recent median and the 2024 result, continuing for about 20 years as the existing loans are slowly worked out and then ending, discounted at 6%. Bull case, about $2.60 per unit: settlements the fund says are expected to close in 2026 are actually collected and cash generation runs near $0.20 per unit a year, about half the 2023 level, for about 25 years. We give no credit for new lending, since the fund has issued no units since early 2023, and no credit for growth. What would make these figures wrong: if the loans are collected close to their carrying values, the fund is worth far more than we estimate, up toward the reported net asset value of about $5.70. If the pace of collections is slower or fees continue to absorb the cash, the fund is worth less. The settlement agreements are not quantified in the filing, so their effect cannot be measured. The most recent annual report is for 2025, with a quarterly report through June 30, 2026, and both were consulted.