$1.50
$9.50
bear $1.50
base $6.00
bull $9.50
margin of safety $3.40
market price* $4.42
TriplePoint Venture Growth is a publicly traded lender to venture-capital-backed companies, managed by an outside adviser. At the end of 2025 it held 302 investments in 133 companies with a fair value of $783.5 million, of which 96 were loans worth $645.4 million. The rest are warrants and equity stakes received alongside the loans. Its borrowers are concentrated in Silicon Valley, Boston, New York and Southern California, with some in the United Kingdom, Canada, Europe and Israel. How we measured earnings. A lender's operating cash flow mostly reflects loans made and repaid, not what the business earns, so we used net investment income: interest, fees and other income, less interest paid on borrowings, management fees and all other expenses. There is no meaningful stock compensation or capital spending. Net investment income per share was $1.57 (2020), $1.33 (2021), $1.94 (2022), $2.07 (2023), $1.40 (2024) and $1.05 (2025). The 2022 and 2023 figures were lifted by high floating interest rates, which have since fallen. The average yield on the loan book dropped from 15.7% in 2024 to 13.7% in 2025 as the Prime Rate declined, and first-half 2026 net investment income was $18.1 million, about $0.45 per share, versus $22.8 million in the first half of 2025. What we did not take at face value. 2025 income of $1.05 per share was helped by $8.5 million of adviser fee relief: $5.3 million from a waiver of the income incentive fee, which the adviser has agreed runs only through the quarter ending December 31, 2026, and $3.1 million from a total-return limit on that fee. Without the waiver the figure is closer to $0.92. Weighing that, the fall in yields, and the fact that the $200 million of 4.50% notes due in 2026 have to be replaced, and the only replacement disclosed in the annual report is $75 million of new notes at 7.50% due 2028, we treat about $0.80 per share as a normal level of net investment income going forward. Credit losses are the other half of the picture. Net investment income overstates what shareholders keep, because loans and warrants lose value. Net asset value per share fell from $14.01 at the end of 2021 to $8.73 at the end of 2025. Over 2021 to 2025, the net increase in net assets per share (after gains and losses on the portfolio) was about $2.47, -$0.61, -$1.12, $0.82 and $1.22. At the end of 2025 four portfolio companies were on non-accrual, with a cost of $39.7 million and a fair value of $17.1 million. We deduct about $0.45 per share a year for net credit losses, in line with the median result across the five years, so normal owner earnings are roughly $0.35 to $0.36 per share. Base case: $6.00 per share. Owner earnings stay flat near $0.36 per share indefinitely. We credit no growth. Growing the loan book would require new shares or more borrowing, and the record shows shares issued at times and NAV per share falling, so we do not count that as secured. The steady loan-and-repay cycle across 300 investments is the one ongoing mechanism we rely on to keep earnings continuing. Bear case: $1.50 per share. A second venture-credit downturn like 2022 to 2024 leaves credit losses at or above net investment income, so owner earnings sit near $0.10 per share. The refinancing at 7.50% and a shrinking loan book add pressure. Leverage makes this worse: debt of $470 million at the end of 2025 ($95 million on the credit facility, $200 million of 4.50% notes due 2026, $125 million of 5.00% notes due 2027 and $50 million of 8.11% notes due 2028) sits against net assets of roughly $350 million. Notes require asset coverage of at least 150% and stockholders equity of at least $230.8 million, so a large NAV decline would restrict distributions and further borrowing. Bull case: $9.50 per share. Fee relief has ended, net investment income holds near $0.95 and net credit costs fall to about $0.30 per share, as in 2021 and 2025 when portfolio gains offset losses. Owner earnings of about $0.65 per share continue flat. We do not assume rate cuts reverse, new capital raised or a rising loan book. What would make this estimate wrong. The base case is too low if warrant and equity gains, which offset losses in 2021 and 2025, prove a regular feature rather than an occasional one. It is too high if non-accruals grow beyond the four companies now disclosed. Sales of our own value estimate to the market price were not considered. We could not obtain the latest quarterly narrative filing, so first-half 2026 figures rely on the reported financial data only.