TG THERAPEUTICS, INC. (TGTX) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

TG Therapeutics sells BRIUMVI (ublituximab), an intravenous antibody therapy for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis approved in December 2022 and launched in January 2023. It is currently the company's only marketed product. BRIUMVI competes against two much larger, established anti-CD20 therapies: Roche's ocrelizumab (Ocrevus, available both IV and now as a faster subcutaneous injection) and Novartis's ofatumumab (Kesimpta, a monthly self-injection). BRIUMVI's positioning is a fast, roughly one-hour infusion combined with twice-yearly maintenance dosing after an initial loading period. The business has grown quickly since launch: worldwide net product revenue was $233.7 million in 2023, $329.0 million in 2024, and $616.3 million in 2025 -- growth that actually accelerated in the third year rather than slowing down. The company turned cash-flow-positive-adjacent and reported its first full year of GAAP net income in 2025, though that reported profit ($447 million) overstates the cash the business produced: about $348 million of it was a one-time, non-cash accounting benefit from releasing a tax-related valuation allowance, not cash the business generated. We strip that out, along with other non-cash items and the working capital the business consumed as it scaled (mainly a fast build in receivables and inventory, which used roughly $195 million of cash in 2025 alone -- a normal cost of rapid growth that should shrink as growth decelerates). On that basis, the company's underlying owner earnings were roughly $15 million in 2023, $26 million in 2024, and $105 million in 2025. This is a very young earnings history (only three full commercial years), and the year-to-year swings are large because owner earnings is a residual after a still-growing working-capital drag, so we do not simply extrapolate the most recent year's outsized growth rate forward -- our near-term forecast growth rates are well below the actual growth rate posted in 2025. We valued the company on that improving trajectory, discounted at a flat 6% rate over an explicit ten-year forecast (2026-2035), with growth decelerating over that period as the multiple sclerosis anti-CD20 market matures. Because BRIUMVI is a single product whose biologic regulatory exclusivity runs out roughly a decade from its approval (around 2034, absent longer patent protection that the company has not spelled out in its filings), we did not assume the cash flows continue growing forever after year ten. Instead we modeled an erosion period starting around 2036 as biosimilar-style competition becomes a realistic risk, settling into a much smaller residual franchise value. This tail (the tapering years plus the smaller terminal value) is a meaningful share of total value in every case, which is typical for a single-product biologic still mid-ramp, and we've been deliberately conservative about what survives the exclusivity cliff given no confirmed pipeline replacement is visible in the filings. Our base case assumes continued, decelerating share gains against Ocrevus and Kesimpta, revenue reaching roughly $2.2 billion by 2035, and profit margins expanding from today's thin ~17% of revenue toward a mature high-20s percentage as the business scales and the fixed costs of running a commercial infrastructure are spread over more sales. That points to a value of about $33 per share. Our bear case (roughly a one-in-ten downside outcome) assumes the company's growth stalls much sooner -- competitive pressure from Ocrevus's newer subcutaneous formulation and from Kesimpta limits further share gains, margins stay compressed by heavy commercial spending and by the cost of servicing the company's debt, and biosimilar-style competition arrives on schedule around 2034 with a faster-than-expected falloff. The company also carries a $250 million secured term loan (from Blue Owl Capital and HealthCare Royalty, taken on in August 2024, maturing August 2029) secured by essentially all of its assets; in a stalled-growth scenario, refinancing that loan without diluting shareholders becomes a real risk, and we've built an explicit discount into this case for that possibility. That points to a value of about $6 per share -- underscoring that this is a young, leveraged, single-product business where a lot has to keep going right. Our bull case (roughly a one-in-ten upside outcome) assumes BRIUMVI keeps taking share faster than the base case, meaningful international revenue contribution beyond what's visible today, faster margin expansion as the company outgrows its cost base, an early paydown of the term loan, and effective patent protection that extends a few years past the statutory minimum. That points to a value of about $61 per share. Given how much the outcome here depends on execution still ahead of the company rather than a long, proven track record, the margin-of-safety price carries a wide margin: about $16.65 per share, and it assumes the 2029 debt maturity is handled comfortably. One item we could not fully verify from the filing: the exact patent expiration date(s) covering BRIUMVI's composition of matter. The company's disclosures discuss general and orphan-drug exclusivity concepts but do not spell out a specific patent expiration year, so we used the statutory 12-year biologics exclusivity period from FDA approval (through late 2034) as a reasoned, and if anything conservative, marker for when competitive risk meaningfully increases.