$0.00
$55.00
bear $0.00
base $11.00
bull $55.00
margin of safety $6.00
market price* $60.82
Business condition attached to the margin of safety
Re-run this analysis once REV Group's post-merger earnings, share count, and combined balance sheet appear in a full-year Terex 10-K; buy_price above is a legacy-standalone-Terex reference and should not be relied on without confirming the REV integration is tracking to plan and net leverage is declining.
Terex screens clean (US heavy-equipment/materials-handling manufacturer - cranes, aerial work platforms, environmental solutions vehicles; no China/cannabis/crypto/shell flags; the one 'going concern' text hit was generic language about its lending banks, not a company going-concern doubt). Owner earnings (CFO - capex - SBC, capex pulled from the 10-K cash-flow text/company-extension XBRL tag since standard tag 96 was unused by this filer) were highly volatile over FY2014-2025, typical of a cyclical capital-goods maker: $2.68/sh (2014), $0.98 (2015), $2.61 (2016), $0.87 (2017), a negative -$0.44/sh (2018, steel-tariff cost inflation and working-capital drag), $0.35 (2019), $1.96 (2020), $2.83 (2021), $1.74 (2022), $4.22 (2023), $2.35 (2024) and $4.37 (2025) - full-cycle average about $2.0/sh with no clean secular trend, though the last three years ran above the historical average. IMPORTANT CONTEXT NOT YET IN THE TRAILING DATA: Terex funded a ~$2.0B debt-financed acquisition of Dover's Environmental Solutions Group in 2024 (long-term debt jumped from $600M in 2023 to ~$2.6B in 2024-2025), and on Feb 2, 2026 completed a mostly stock-funded merger with REV Group (specialty/emergency vehicles) that roughly doubled diluted shares outstanding (66.3M at FY2025 to ~105-114M by mid-2026) - a transformative deal not reflected in any of the FY2014-2025 owner-earnings history used here, so this valuation is a standalone-legacy-Terex reference point, not a fully current one; it should be revisited once REV's earnings show up in trailing filings.
Base case (on the pre-REV FY2025 share count/net debt) starts at $2.50/sh growing 4%/yr at a 10% discount rate (elevated for leverage/integration risk) with 2.5% terminal growth; bear starts at $0.50/sh (near the 2018/2019 trough) declining 3%/yr at 12.5%, which computes negative once netted against debt and is floored at $0 - the ~$2.6B debt load exceeds the conservatively-valued operating earnings power in a genuine stress case; bull assumes $4.00/sh (near the 2023/2025 level) growing 6%/yr at 9%, reflecting successful ESG/REV integration. Net debt was $1.826B against 66.3M FY2025 diluted shares, i.e. -$27.54/sh, a major drag on all three scenarios. Base works out to ~$11/sh, bull to ~$55/sh. Given the wide spread, the leverage, and - most importantly - the unresolved integration risk and share-count discontinuity from the REV Group merger, buy_price is set far below the typical 30% discount, anchored close to the bear case.