USA TODAY Co., Inc. (TDAY) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

USA TODAY Co. (formerly Gannett) publishes the USA TODAY network of local and national news properties in the United States and Newsquest in the United Kingdom, and runs LocaliQ, a digital marketing services business for small and mid-sized clients. Revenue was $2.30 billion in 2025, down about 8% from $2.51 billion in 2024, and $1.08 billion in the first half of 2026, about 6% below the same period a year earlier. Digital is now 46% of revenue, but the USA TODAY Media segment's digital revenue itself fell in 2025 ($654.2 million versus $692.7 million) because LocaliQ's direct business lost customers. So the company is shrinking overall, with digital not yet offsetting print. How we measured earnings. We start from operating cash flow, strip out swings in receivables, payables and deferred revenue, and subtract stock compensation and capital spending. Revenue fell every year since 2020, so all capital spending is treated as upkeep. Pension and retiree payments are left in as a real cost. Since the November 2019 Gannett merger the company is a different business, so we ignore earlier years. Results by year, per share: 2020 -$0.40, 2021 $1.07, 2022 -$0.03, 2023 $0.50, 2024 $0.15, 2025 $0.49. We use 2022-2025 (2020 and 2021 were distorted by COVID and merger integration), giving a middle value of about $0.32 per share, roughly $47 million a year. That is below 2025's $0.49, deliberately, given how uneven the series is. Growth check: owner earnings rose from $0.15 to $0.49 in 2025, but that reflects a weak 2024 rather than a trend; we assume earnings shrink in year one, not grow, because revenue is still falling. Base case: $2.80 per share. Earnings start at $0.32 and decline about 5% a year for as long as the business lasts. Revenue has fallen 6% to 8% a year, but cash flow held nearly flat in the first half of 2026 ($54.6 million versus $55.9 million), so cost cuts are absorbing part of the drop. We credit no growth: no contracted or proven source of growth exists, and digital revenue is not yet growing at the segment level. Bear case: $0.20 per share. Earnings start at the weak 2024 level of $0.15, decline about 12% a year, and the company must refinance a $729.5 million term loan due October 15, 2029 at higher interest. Total debt was $977 million at the end of 2025 against roughly $47 million of normal owner earnings, so the shares are a thin slice above a large debt load. The debt is not subtracted separately; its cost is already in cash flow and it is reflected here. Bull case: $5.30 per share. Earnings hold near 2025's $0.49 and decline only about 3% a year, as cost reductions keep pace with revenue and digital keeps rising as a share of the total. No new products or partnerships are counted. What would make this wrong: a faster revenue decline than cost cuts can absorb, or a costly refinancing, would push toward the bear case. Owner earnings that grow rather than shrink for several years would push toward the bull case. Our estimate relies on the annual filing for 2025 and the second-quarter 2026 report.