TScan Therapeutics, Inc. (TCRX) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

TScan Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing T cell receptor engineered T cell (TCR-T) therapies for blood cancers. Its lead candidate, TSC-101, is in a Phase 1 trial (ALLOHA) to prevent relapse in patients with acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndromes who receive donor stem cell transplants. In late 2025 the company reported agreement with the FDA on a registrational path for TSC-101, but no product has been approved and there are no product sales. Its only revenue is collaboration income under agreements with Novartis (2020) and Amgen (May 2023), which was $10.3 million in 2025, $2.8 million in 2024 and $21.0 million in 2023. That revenue is mostly the recognition of upfront payments already received, not new cash: in 2025 deferred revenue fell by $10.3 million. Because it comes from previously received upfront payments, it should not be read as a recurring earnings stream. What the business actually earns: after subtracting share-based compensation ($11.7 million in 2025) and capital spending, and stripping out working-capital timing, the business consumed about $129 million in 2025, or roughly $(0.99) per share. The same measure was about $(1.15) in 2024, $(1.28) in 2023, $(2.61) in 2022 and $(4.24) in 2021. Every year in the record is negative and the loss per share has narrowed only because the share count has grown from about 12 million to about 130 million through equity raising. Accumulated losses were $504.9 million at the end of 2025. Management states cash on hand is sufficient for at least twelve months from the filing date, and that substantial additional funding will be needed after that. How we value it. We credit only value that rests on something secured or a proven, repeating process. TSC-101 has an agreed FDA path, but a trial not yet run, an approval not yet granted and a market not yet built are things that have not happened, so they add nothing to any case. The Novartis and Amgen agreements are the only contracted income, and no replacement agreement is evidenced. The cash the company holds is spent on the losses described above, and we do not count earnings that do not exist. Bear case, $0 per share: collaboration income ends, the funded work continues to consume cash, and further equity raising dilutes holders until the pipeline either fails or is financed on terms that leave little for existing shareholders. Base case, $0 per share: no named, evidenced source of future owner earnings exists today, so the median outcome from documented facts is nil. Bull case, $0 per share: even if TSC-101 executes well in its registrational study, that success is not yet contracted or approved, so the evidence available now supports no positive value; the possibility of a large payoff is real but is not something we can price from the filings. What would make this wrong: positive registrational data for TSC-101 followed by FDA approval and a commercial launch, or a partner paying substantial upfront cash for the program. Either would create earning power we could name and evidence, and we would re-value at that point. We tested the base case against the record: cash burn rose from $48.7 million in 2021 to $135.3 million in 2025 while collaboration revenue fell from $21.0 million (2023) to $10.3 million, so nothing in the filings shows the losses shrinking on their own. Accounting note: maintenance capital spending was set at zero in 2023 and 2025 because our growth-versus-maintenance split attributes all of that year's capital spending to growth when revenue rose.