Shattuck Labs, Inc. (STTK) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Shattuck Labs is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing antibodies that block Death Receptor 3 (DR3), aimed at inflammatory and immune diseases. Its lead candidate, SL-325, was expected to complete enrollment in a Phase 1 trial in healthy volunteers in the second quarter of 2026, with a Phase 2 trial in Crohn's disease planned to start in the third quarter of 2026. It has no approved products and no product sales. Its revenue has been small and one-off: $5.7 million in 2024 from the Ono and ImmunoGen collaborations, which finished that year, and $1.0 million in 2025 from a licence of its TRIM7 oncology program to Kayak Therapeutics. The company discontinued its earlier lead program, SL-172154, and cut staff in 2024. What the business earns. On our measure (cash from operations, less working-capital swings, less stock compensation, less capital spending), the company has lost money in every year we measured. Owner earnings per share were about -$2.36 (2020), -$1.12 (2021), -$2.55 (2022), -$1.99 (2023), -$1.44 (2024) and -$0.66 (2025). The 2025 loss per share is smaller partly because the share count rose from about 50.8 million to 69.6 million diluted shares after the August 2025 financing. Cash burn itself fell as spending was cut: operating cash outflow was $39.9 million in 2025 versus $60.5 million in 2024. In the first half of 2026 it was $23.6 million. There is no positive earnings level to anchor on, so we do not value the company on earnings. Growth path. Owner earnings improved by about 37% in 2025 (a loss of $46.2 million versus $73.1 million), but that came from shutting down a program, not from a business gaining strength. We assume no further improvement: the company says it expects research spending to rise in 2026 as SL-325 enters Phase 2, so we assume annual cash burn of about $55 million in the base case. What we credit and what we leave out. The one thing we can point to is cash. At June 30, 2026 the company held $208.3 million in cash and short-term investments (up from $78.1 million at year-end 2025 after a $45.7 million financing in August 2025, warrant exercises and share sales in January 2026) against total liabilities of $9.5 million. Diluted shares were about 130 million in the second quarter of 2026, including pre-funded warrants that behave like ordinary shares, so cash is roughly $1.60 per share. We give no value to SL-325 or the DR3 approach, because nothing in the filings yet shows efficacy in patients, and no value to the Kayak milestones (up to $86.0 million) or royalties, which depend on Kayak developing the program. Those are the parts that could make the shares worth far more than our numbers, and we deliberately assign them no value. Our figures are therefore closer to what is left of the cash after the trials than to the value of the science. Bear case, $0.13 per share. The Crohn's disease trial takes longer than hoped, no partner appears, and spending runs at about $60 million a year for three years before the program is stopped. That uses about $180 million of the $208.3 million, leaving about $28 million, less about $8 million for winding down, and we discount the remainder to today at 6%. Base case, $0.62 per share. Spending runs at about $55 million a year for two years to a decision on SL-325, and nothing further of value is credited. About $98 million remains, less about $8 million of wind-down costs, discounted at 6% and divided by 130 million shares. Bull case, $0.88 per share. The program reaches a decision in about a year and a half at about $50 million a year, leaving more cash to return. About $133 million remains, less about $8 million of wind-down costs, discounted at 6%. The two- and three-year durations, the annual spending levels and the $8 million wind-down cost are our own assumptions, informed by the recent run-rate; the filings do not give a readout date. Share counts could rise further: its annual report said it could receive another $51.7 million if remaining warrants are exercised, and it has an at-the-market program for up to $75.0 million of shares. Further issuance would lower per-share values unless the money is raised at prices above our estimates. What would make this wrong. This is a cash-based valuation, so it is wrong on the upside if SL-325 shows clear benefit in Crohn's disease, or if Kayak or another partner pays milestones. It is wrong on the downside if spending runs well above about $60 million a year or dilution continues. We could not open the second-quarter 2026 quarterly report text, so the June 2026 cash, share count and liabilities come from the company's reported financial data rather than from its narrative discussion. The margin-of-safety price is $0.12, below the bear case, because the company has no earnings to fall back on and its cash is being spent every year. It sits well under the cash that will realistically be left.