Strata Critical Medical, Inc. (SRTA) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Strata Critical Medical (formerly Blade Air Mobility) is now a medical logistics and clinical services company. On August 29, 2025 it sold its Passenger flight business to Joby Aviation, and on September 16, 2025 it bought Keystone Perfusion Services. It now runs two segments. Logistics (Trinity brand) flies and drives donor organs to transplant hospitals under first-call contracts priced per flight hour, mostly using third-party aircraft. Clinical (Keystone brand) provides organ recovery surgery, normothermic regional perfusion, organ preservation and cardiac perfusion staffing. Why the estimate is low. In every year we can measure, cash generation after treating stock compensation as a real cost was negative. Per share, our measure was about -$0.64 in 2022, -$0.52 in 2023, -$0.63 in 2024 and -$0.16 in 2025. Most of those years describe the sold Passenger business, so they are history and we rely mainly on the current business. In the first half of 2026 the company generated $9.6 million of operating cash flow on $139.9 million of revenue, but stock compensation of $8.7 million and equipment spending of $7.7 million absorbed essentially all of it, leaving roughly break-even. Reported 2025 operating cash flow of -$48.9 million included $44.3 million of Keystone liabilities settled at closing and $7.4 million of sale costs, which we treated as one-time deal costs. Management's adjusted EBITDA of $14.1 million for 2025 adds back stock compensation and is not the basis we use. What each case assumes. Bear (about -$0.18 per share): earnings after stock compensation stay slightly negative, about -$2 million a year, for a decade, and nothing further is received from the Passenger sale. On that path the operations are worth less than nothing, by roughly $15 million in total. Base (about $0.10 per share): the business stays near break-even and is worth nothing on its operations, and the $8.7 million indemnity holdback from the Joby sale is released, which is about $0.10 per share. This receivable is carried at fair value in the audited balance sheet. Bull (about $0.80 per share): the Joby retention and earn-out consideration of up to $35 million (carried at $27.7 million) is collected, the holdback is released, and the medical business earns about $4 million a year after stock compensation, which is small relative to the $13.9 million gross profit improvement (before depreciation) achieved in 2025. Judgements. We did not credit growth from acquisitions, new customers or market expansion, because there is no multi-year record of self-funded, repeatable growth to rely on. Amortization of acquired intangibles is added back automatically, and Keystone's customer lists and trademarks will keep wearing down, which is another reason we credit no growth. We did not value the roughly $23 million of cash and held-to-maturity securities at June 30, 2026 separately, because interest earned on it is already in operating cash flow. What would make this wrong. The main upside is that the medical business is more profitable than recent cash flow suggests, for example if stock compensation, which was $17.8 million in 2025 including the Passenger business, falls sharply. The main risks are that the Joby targets are missed, and that Keystone earn-out payments of up to $23 million through 2028 shift value away from shareholders.