SiriusPoint Ltd (SPNT) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

SiriusPoint is a Bermuda-based specialty insurer and reinsurer. It works through two segments: Insurance & Services, which underwrites business sourced from managing general agents (MGAs), and Reinsurance. It also owns two MGAs outright or in majority: International Medical Group (travel and international health insurance) and Alta Signa (financial and professional lines in Europe). In 2025 it wrote $2.77 billion of net premiums, $1.34 billion of it in the United States and Canada and $1.10 billion in the United Kingdom and Europe. Core underwriting income was $214 million on a 91.7% combined ratio, and investment results were $272 million on a portfolio rated AA- on average. What changed the business. The Sirius Group acquisition in February 2021 created today's company, so 2021 is left out of the earnings level. In 2024 and 2025 the company bought out its former largest shareholder, and diluted shares fell from about 169 million to about 122 million. In October 2025 it sold the Armada MGA for $250 million (a $222 million gain that we do not treat as recurring earnings), while keeping an underwriting capacity partnership with Armada through 2030. How earning power is measured. Insurers collect premiums long before claims are paid, so operating cash flow swings widely with reserves, premiums receivable and reinsurance balances. We start from operating cash flow, remove the net effect of those balance movements and the cost of share compensation, and there is no meaningful capital spending. On that basis owner earnings were about $313 million in 2023, $233 million in 2024 and $289 million in 2025, but a loss of about $86 million in 2022, a year of investment losses and heavy recoverable build-up. The 2021 acquisition year was about negative $397 million. We use the 2022 to 2025 window and a level of about $250 million a year, roughly $2.05 per share on 122 million diluted shares. Earnings growth in 2025 was about 24%; the base case assumes none, because premium growth has been uneven (net written premium $2.44 billion, $2.35 billion, then $2.77 billion over 2023 to 2025), and no contracted or long-proven growth engine exists. The company launched 16 new MGA partnerships in 2025, but their results are unproven, so they are not credited. As a cross-check, 2025 net income excluding the Armada gain was about $237 million. Base case, about $22 per share. Owner earnings hold at $250 million a year for ten years, sustained by the renewal of existing treaty and MGA relationships, then fade in a straight line to zero over the following twenty years, because we cannot point to evidence that this franchise keeps earning at a rate beyond that. Discounted at 6%, this is about $2.75 billion, or about $22 per share. Bear case, about $9 per share. Recent profits were helped by favorable reserve releases from prior years: $174 million in 2023, $108 million in 2024 and $74 million in 2025. If those stop and losses run at a level closer to 2022, owner earnings could sit near $130 million for eight years and then fade over ten. The company also carries $689 million of debt, which is a fixed claim ahead of shareholders, and reserves for claims are large relative to equity. Interest is already deducted in cash flow, so no separate debt subtraction is made. Bull case, about $31.50 per share. Underwriting stays near a 91% combined ratio and owner earnings return to the 2023 level of about $330 million for ten years, then fade over twenty-five years. No new markets or share gains are assumed. What we left out. We give no credit for new MGA partnerships, market expansion or margin improvement. We also give no credit for the Armada sale proceeds as a recurring item. What would make this wrong. Reserves for past claims could prove too low: the company holds about $5 billion or more of loss reserves and has shown 2022-style losses within the last four years. Alternatively, the earnings could prove more durable than a fading model allows, since the core combined ratio has held near 91% in both 2024 and 2025. We could not fully reconcile operating cash flow to earnings each year, because reserve and reinsurance balance movements are large and offset each other; we treat the four-year median as the fair level rather than any single year. Historical per-share figures use the share counts reported at the time, which were higher before the share buyback.