$13.30
$40.00
bear $13.30
base $30.80
bull $40.00
margin of safety $17.00
market price* $31.51
Schneider National is a large U.S. trucking and logistics company. It earns money in three ways: Truckload (which includes its Dedicated and Network businesses), Intermodal, and Logistics. It serves customers across the continental U.S., Canada and Mexico. In 2025 it had revenue of $5.67 billion, and about 175.9 million diluted shares. How we measured earnings. We start with cash from operations, then subtract the cash effect of swings in receivables and payables, the cost of stock compensation, and the part of equipment spending needed just to keep the fleet running. Trucking is equipment-heavy, so this matters. The company sells its old tractors as it buys new ones, so we count equipment spending net of sale proceeds, which is also how the company reports it ($289 million in 2025). Growth spending is separated using the company's seven-year spending-to-revenue ratio (about 6.6% of revenue). On this basis, owner earnings per share were $1.75 (2019), $1.92 (2020), $2.80 (2021), $2.62 (2022), $0.73 (2023), $1.21 (2024) and $1.93 (2025). We used 2019 to 2025 because it spans a freight downturn, the 2021-22 boom and the 2023-25 slump, and because from 2019 the company reports lease receipts in operating cash flow in a consistent way. The median is $1.92 and the average is $1.85. We anchor on $1.85, slightly below the median, because the median comes from years, such as 2020, when equipment purchases were unusually low, while the company now guides to higher spending. Growth. In 2025 owner earnings rose about 59% from a weak 2024 ($1.93 versus $1.21), but that is a partial return toward normal, not a new growth rate. We assume no growth from here: year one is $1.85, below the 2025 figure. Schneider does have real growth activity: it bought Cowan Systems on December 2, 2024 for $398.6 million and M&M Transport Services in August 2023 for $243.8 million, and Truckload revenue rose 14% in 2025, mostly from Cowan. But acquisitions are irregular and large, not a steady small-step process, so we give no credit for future deals, share gains or a freight recovery. Cowan is already in 2025 results, so the level we use already includes it. Bear case, $13.3 per share. Owner earnings settle at about $0.80 per share (near the 2023 low of $0.73) and stay there. This is what happens if the company must spend at the level it now guides to for 2026 (net equipment spending of $400 to $450 million, including $78.2 million of firm purchase commitments) while freight profits stay near recent lows. At $0.80 the business is worth about $13.3 per share. The company has $397.5 million of debt, including a $347.5 million term loan, with $322.3 million of scheduled maturities falling in 2029. That is modest against $637 million of operating cash flow in 2025, but it adds to the downside. Base case, $30.8 per share. Owner earnings stay flat at $1.85 per share indefinitely. We credit no growth. Value is $1.85 divided by 6%. Flat, not fading, because equipment replacement is already fully deducted, so nothing is being consumed that we have not charged for, and the company has run a nationwide network of terminals (about 280 properties in 41 states and Mexico at the end of 2025) through the freight cycle of 2019 to 2025. Bull case, $40.0 per share. Owner earnings reach $2.40 per share and stay flat. This needs no market recovery. In the first half of 2026, revenue was $2.97 billion (up 5% from $2.82 billion), net income rose to $70.1 million from $62.1 million, and purchases of transportation equipment were lower ($153.7 million versus $183.5 million), while operating cash flow was steady at $264.3 million versus $267.2 million. If Cowan's fleet is fully absorbed and equipment spending stays near 2025 levels, $2.40 is reachable. The value is $2.40 divided by 6%. What could make this wrong. Freight markets are cyclical and Schneider's earnings have swung from $0.73 to $2.80 per share in the past seven years. If replacement spending stays at the 2026 guided level without a matching rise in profit, even our bear case could prove generous. In the other direction, if profits per truck improve without higher spending, the base case understates value. One thing the filings do not settle is how much of the guided 2026 equipment spending is growth and how much is replacement. The margin-of-safety price is $17.00: a cyclical, asset-heavy business needs a wide margin of safety, and that price is close to the bear-case value plus a modest premium.