$16.50
$78.60
bear $16.50
base $47.10
bull $78.60
margin of safety $28.00
market price* $186.51
SharkNinja designs and sells Shark cleaning and beauty products and Ninja kitchen, drink and home-environment appliances, made by third-party factories (largely in China, Vietnam and elsewhere) and sold mainly through retailers. 2025 net sales were $6.4 billion (up 15.7%): Cooking and Beverage $1.82B, Food Preparation $1.55B (frozen drinks, +31.6%), Beauty and Home Environment $0.83B (+45.3%), with the rest largely Cleaning. About two-thirds of sales are in the United States and one-third international. Amazon, Costco and Walmart together were 45.7% of 2025 sales. How we measured earnings. We count cash from operations, remove the swings in receivables, inventory and payables, and deduct stock compensation and the part of capital spending needed just to stand still. On that basis, earnings per share were $1.09 (2023), $3.01 (2024) and $5.53 (2025). Because interest is paid before these figures and we value the business ahead of its lenders, we add back cash interest ($51M, $65M, $51M), giving $1.45, $3.46 and $5.89 per share of cash generated by the business. Only three reported years exist since the July 2023 separation from JS Global; 2023 is set aside as a transition year (one-time shareholder-funded executive bonuses and a partial-year public structure). We anchor on the middle of 2024 and 2025, about $4.68 per share, rather than the 2025 peak, because 2025 was flattered by a $319M cash build in receivables and inventory that we have stripped out but that reflects real growth-related funding needs. The 2025 figure grew 70% over 2024; our base case assumes no growth in year one, so it does not depend on that pace continuing. Base case (about $47 per share). We hold the $4.68 level flat for ten years, then let it fade 10% a year. We credit no further growth: new categories (Ninja Luxe Cafe, fans, face masks) and international expansion have worked but are launches and share gains, not contracted or long-proven, and core air fryers and outdoor grills already declined in 2025. What we do credit is the earning power already demonstrated: two powerful brands, product introductions that lifted sales from $4.25B to $6.40B in two years, and long-standing retail shelf positions. The business is worth about $49 per share before debt; it owes about $2 per share net (see below), leaving about $47. Bear case (about $16.5 per share). Earnings fall to about $2.50 per share (between 2023 and 2024 levels) because of named, disclosed risks: heavy tariff exposure on goods made in China and Vietnam (the filing says tariff changes have had, and will keep having, a material adverse effect), 45.7% of sales concentrated in three retailers, and softness already visible in air fryers and grills. Earnings then shrink 5% a year indefinitely. Worth about $21.6 before debt; the company owes about $5.1 per share of borrowings with no credit for cash, leaving about $16.5. Debt is manageable in this case: business cash flow of roughly $350M compares with about $50M of interest, though the credit facility matures July 2028 and would need refinancing. Bull case (about $78.6 per share). The company's current levers keep executing: earnings start at the 2025 level of $5.89 and grow 4% a year for ten years (below the 15.7% sales growth and 20.8% international growth seen in 2025), then fade 10% a year. Worth about $80.6 before debt, less about $2 net debt. Debt. Borrowings were about $716M at June 30, 2026 (a term loan at SOFR plus 1.85%, close to our 6% rate, due July 2028), against $780M of cash. The company draws its $500M revolver seasonally ($350M drawn and repaid in 2025), so we treat about $350M of cash as needed for operations and count the remaining ~$430M against debt, for net debt of about $286M, or $2.0 per share. Covenants were met at December 31, 2025. What could make this wrong. Upside: the 2025 results and first-half 2026 sales (+19%) suggest the product engine is working better than our flat base case. Downside: tariff rulings and retaliation, loss or repricing at Amazon, Costco or Walmart, and faster erosion of the older product lines. JS Global (the former parent) retains licensing and supply relationships with the company and the Chairperson sits on both boards, a potential conflict of interest noted in the filing. A supply-service fee to JS Global ended July 31, 2025, which helped 2025 margins and should not be counted on to grow further.