$0.00
$7.30
bear $0.00
base $0.00
bull $7.30
margin of safety $2.50
market price* $8.21
Business condition attached to the margin of safety
The two new platform supply vessels under construction have been delivered and are working, and the company has generated positive cash from operations, after interest and before working-capital swings, for at least four straight quarters.
SEACOR Marine owns and charters offshore support vessels: platform supply vessels (PSVs), liftboats, fast support vessels and anchor handlers. Its customers are offshore oil, gas and wind operators. Revenue is day rates multiplied by days worked, so results swing with vessel utilization. Sales come from four regions: the United States (primarily the Gulf of America), Africa and Europe, the Middle East and Asia, and Latin America. What the cash flow shows. We measure earning power as cash from operations, less working-capital swings, less stock compensation, less the capital spending needed to keep the fleet running. On that basis, per share, the last seven years were: 2019 -$2.56, 2020 -$0.53, 2021 -$1.03, 2022 -$1.07, 2023 +$0.99, 2024 -$0.75 and 2025 -$3.47. Only 2023 was positive. We use 2019 to 2025 because it spans the 2020 revenue low and the 2023 recovery, and because the earlier years covered a different fleet and business mix (including the rescue-vessel and Windcat businesses that were later sold). The median of the seven years is -$1.03 per share. In 2025 the business used $36.4 million of operating cash and spent $48.8 million on vessels and equipment. Revenue fell from $271.4 million in 2024 to $227.8 million in 2025. In the first half of 2026 revenue was $98.9 million against $116.3 million a year earlier, and operating cash flow was -$28.3 million against -$13.5 million. We rebuilt the figure from net income and confirmed it agrees with reported operating cash flow. Why the numbers are weak. Before working capital, interest and taxes, the fleet generated $80.1 million of operating cash in 2023, $37.3 million in 2024 and $10.9 million in 2025. Interest paid was $34.9 million in 2025 on about $339 million of debt at a fixed 10.30% under the 2024 credit facility. That interest alone exceeds what operations now produce. Direct vessel profit in 2025 was -$4.7 million in the U.S., $28.8 million in Africa and Europe, $3.6 million in the Middle East and Asia and $18.3 million in Latin America, against $41.8 million of administrative costs. Fleet sales are not earnings. The company sold vessels for net proceeds of $129.2 million in 2025 and booked a $63.4 million gain, which is why the net loss was $27.8 million despite the cash burn. Selling ships raises cash but shrinks the fleet that earns the money, so we do not treat sale proceeds as owner earnings. We also do not credit the fleet's resale value in any case, because it would be a one-time liquidation rather than a source of ongoing earnings. Recorded shareholders' equity of about $265 million rests on vessel carrying values that we could not test against market prices. Base case, $0 per share. Nothing we can name and evidence produces positive owner earnings. Operating cash before interest has fallen in each of the last two years, the first half of 2026 was weaker than 2025, and interest is fixed. Last year's owner earnings were -$3.47 per share, so we do not assume improvement in the first year. The two new PSVs, being built by Fujian Mawei Shipbuilding in China for $41.0 million each with delivery expected in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, are named capacity, but no charters for them are disclosed, so we credit nothing for them. Unfunded commitments were $49.6 million at the end of 2025. Bear case, $0 per share. Cash burn continues near the median rate of about $1 per share a year. The debt schedule shows $30.0 million due in 2026, $31.4 million in 2027, $31.2 million in 2028 and $246.3 million in 2029. If the fleet cannot refinance the 2029 balance at acceptable terms, shareholders could lose everything. The company's assets are recorded at more than its debt, so we do not conclude that it owes more than it is worth, and we do not show a negative value. Bull case, $7.3 per share. Owner earnings return to the 2023 level of $0.99 per share and hold there for ten years with no growth, then stop. 2023 is the only year the business has actually reached that level, and it needed strong Gulf of America results ($59.5 million of U.S. revenue that year versus $36.3 million in 2025). We credit no growth beyond that, since none of it is contracted or a repeated pattern. What would prove this wrong. If the new PSVs are delivered and quickly earn day rates well above the roughly $17,000 to $25,000 a day seen in regional fleets, and utilization climbs, cash from operations could exceed interest. Our estimates would treat that as established only after at least four straight quarters showing it. In 2025 the Africa and Europe and Latin America regions were solidly profitable, and if that spreads to the U.S. fleet, the outcome would be closer to the bull case. Margin-of-safety price: $2.50 per share, applying only once the business condition is met. That is roughly one third of the bull value, which reflects the heavy debt, the 2029 refinancing and the uneven earnings record.