$6.40
$37.80
bear $6.40
base $26.50
bull $37.80
margin of safety $11.00
market price* $27.07
Slide Insurance is a Florida-based property insurer that writes homeowners and condo policies almost entirely in Florida's coastal markets. Gross premiums written were $1.80 billion in 2025 (up from $1.33 billion), and policies in force rose from about 343,000 to about 494,000, largely because Slide takes over policies from Florida's state-backed insurer, Citizens, and renews policies it acquired the rights to from Farmers. Profits were exceptional: net income of $444 million in 2025 (combined ratio 52%) versus $201 million in 2024 (combined ratio 72%). Since 2021 the combined ratio has averaged about 66%. The company came public in June 2025, so only two years of audited cash flow are available. How we measured earnings. We started from operating cash flow and removed the timing effects of a fast-growing book: premiums collected in advance, reserve and reinsurance movements, and the tax credits Slide pre-purchased (a prepayment of tax that reverses through lower tax bills), and we deducted stock compensation. This gives owner earnings of about $3.40 per share in 2025 and $1.59 in 2024; the cash-flow build matches net income plus non-cash items to within rounding. Because an insurer's borrowing and float are its raw material, we valued earnings after interest and did not subtract debt; Slide's borrowings are small anyway (about $34 million). The starting level is $2.50 per share, the midpoint of the two years. 2025 was a benign year, with no major Florida hurricane loss and a 52% combined ratio, so it is not treated as normal. 2024 included an active hurricane season but on a book about 30% smaller. As a cross-check, applying the company's own roughly 66% average combined ratio to 2025 premium volumes gives about $2.40 to $2.90 per share. Earnings grew about 113% last year; the base case assumes only 10% growth in year one. The reason for that is dated and in the filings: in November 2025 Slide was approved to assume about 100,000 more Citizens policies through the first half of 2026, and about 24,000 ($58.7 million of premium) had already been assumed in February 2026. First-half 2026 results (net income $274 million) are consistent with this level and do not change it, since hurricane season had not begun. Base case: $26.50 per share. Earnings of about $2.75 per share for ten years, then declining 15% a year because nothing named and evidenced (no long-dated contract or protected franchise) guarantees Florida homeowners profits beyond that. Growth beyond the approved Citizens policies is left out: it depends on Citizens continuing to release policies and on share gains, which are not secured. The business owes about $34 million in borrowings, immaterial against this value. Bear case: $6.40 per share. Earnings of about $1.30 per share, shrinking 10% a year, with a major Florida hurricane in year three that turns that year's owner earnings to a loss of about $1.00 per share. Named pressures: average premium per policy fell from $3,924 to $3,670 in 2025 while catastrophe reinsurance cost rose about $107 million; the Farmers renewal-rights flow already dropped 39%; and nearly all premium comes from one state. The business is worth about $6.40 per share, owes about $0.25 per share of debt (immaterial), for a similar equity value. Bull case: $37.80 per share. Earnings of $3.60 per share held for ten years (roughly 2025's demonstrated level plus the approved Citizens policies), then declining 10% a year. This needs a repeat of a benign catastrophe environment and disciplined pricing, both of which have occurred in 2025 but are not assured. What would make this wrong: a Florida hurricane large enough to exhaust Slide's reinsurance, tighter reinsurance pricing at the June renewals, legislation ending Citizens depopulation, or thinner margins as competitors return to Florida. Slide's owner earnings are also based on a 132 million diluted share count; about 124 million shares were outstanding in February 2026, which would raise per-share values by a few percent. Only two years of history means the through-cycle level is less certain than for an older insurer.