Sidus Space Inc. (SIDU) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Sidus Space builds and operates small satellites (its LizzieSat line, the third of which launched on SpaceX Transporter-13 in March 2025) and sells space-based data services, satellite manufacturing and defense hardware work, including a ten-year indefinite-delivery contract with the Tobyhanna Army Depot for cable and electronics fabrication. The business does not yet earn money. Revenue fell from $7.3 million in 2022 to $6.0 million, $4.7 million and $3.4 million in 2023 to 2025, and to $0.9 million in the first half of 2026 against $1.5 million a year earlier. Meanwhile the company spent $7 to 8 million a year on satellite and facility equipment. After stripping out stock compensation and working-capital swings, and treating all equipment spending as ongoing because revenue was shrinking, the business consumed about $2.8 million in 2021, $12.5 million in 2022, $21.2 million in 2023, $22.8 million in 2024 and $28.8 million in 2025. Every year on record is a cash loss, and the loss has widened each year. What the shares are worth today therefore depends almost entirely on the cash the company has raised, not on earnings. Cash went from $43.2 million at the end of 2025 to $166.5 million at June 30, 2026, after roughly $146 million of share sales in the first half. The company repaid its $8.2 million asset-based loan in January 2026 and $0.5 million of related-party advances in February, and reports no borrowings; obligations at mid-2026 are ordinary payables, accruals and leases, which are already reflected in the spending figures. About 101.1 million Class A shares were outstanding, plus roughly 3.6 million warrants and a small number of options that we have not counted, so cash works out to about $1.65 per share. We do not credit any growth. We found no order backlog, no disclosed minimum purchase under the Tobyhanna contract, and no signed contract large enough to cover annual spending, and the fleet and equipment built since 2023 has coincided with falling, not rising, revenue. Anything that depends on new satellites winning customers, or on the space market expanding, is left out. What we can evidence is the spending pattern: spending has risen with each capital raise. Our starting level for annual cash consumption is about $21.5 million, the middle of the 2023 to 2025 results. The two most recent periods are both above that level (2025 at $27.3 million before interest, and the first half of 2026 at roughly $32 million annualized), so we move the level up rather than rely on the older figure. For the first year the base case assumes $27.3 million, the same as last year's actual and below the first-half 2026 pace; last year the loss widened by about 27%, and we found no dated event in the filings that reverses that, so we assume no improvement. Each case is built as cash on hand minus the present value (at 6%) of spending until the cash is gone, with nothing assumed to be earned afterward. Bear case, $0.27 per share: spending continues at about $32 million a year, the pace of the first half of 2026, with revenue continuing to fall; the $166.5 million of cash would last about five years and the equity would be worth roughly $27 million after allowing for the timing of that spending. Base case, $0.30 per share: spending stays at last year's $27.3 million, lasting about six years, leaving about $30 million of present value. Bull case, $0.36 per share: equipment spending returns to the roughly $21.5 million a year the company already ran at in 2023 and 2024 (a level it has already reached, not new growth), giving about $36 million. In every case the company owes essentially nothing to lenders, so the value is cash less future spending, not debt. These numbers are far below the cash balance because the record shows the company spending what it raises. What would make them wrong is the company either cutting spending sharply (which would leave much of the $166.5 million intact, worth up to about $1.65 per share) or turning its satellites and defense work into revenue that covers its costs. Neither is evidenced today, so neither is in the figures. The opposite risk is further share issuance: the company has sold shares every year since going public, and new sales would reduce each share's claim on the cash. We tested the load-bearing assumption that revenue will not rescue the picture: first-half 2026 revenue was down about 37% from the first half of 2025, and the annual filing lists no backlog. We also confirmed that the 2026 cash raise is real and that no debt remains. The annual filing refers to the company's ability to continue as a going concern only in general terms and contains no substantial-doubt warning; with $166.5 million of cash the near-term funding position is not in question. Owner-earnings figures reconcile to reported net income and cash flow within 1% in each year, and we could not obtain the 10-Q's exact equipment spending, so first-half 2026 spending is estimated from the change in net equipment, roughly $7 million.