SpyGlass Pharma, Inc. (SGP) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

SpyGlass Pharma is a clinical-stage eye-care company based in Aliso Viejo, California. It is developing the BIM-IOL System, a lens implanted during cataract surgery that releases the glaucoma drug bimatoprost over a long period, aimed at patients with glaucoma or high eye pressure who also have a cataract and today rely on daily eye drops. It has no revenue and no approved product. In July 2025 it started two registrational Phase 3 trials, each planned for about 400 patients at 45 sites. The company completed its IPO in February 2026 at $16.00 per share, selling 10,781,250 shares for net proceeds of about $156.1 million. What the shares are worth today comes down to cash minus the cost of getting to an answer. Operating cash flow was negative $22.0 million in 2024, negative $32.7 million in 2025, and negative $28.4 million in the first half of 2026 alone. On our cash-based earnings measure (operating cash flow less working-capital swings, stock compensation and capital spending) the loss was about $38.7 million in 2025 and $27.1 million in 2024. Before the IPO there were only about 2.2 million common shares, so per-share figures for those years are not comparable with today's roughly 33.4 million shares. Cash and equivalents were $223.1 million on June 30, 2026, and management says its funds should last through 2028. We give no credit for future product revenue. The lead product has not been approved, and there is no signed partner, approval or revenue stream that is already secured. The patents, which are expected to expire between 2039 and 2043, matter only if a product reaches the market. With no earnings we can point to, the shares are worth what remains of the cash after the cost of the trials is paid for, discounted at 6 percent over the two and a half years to the end of 2028. Bear case ($0.50 per share): spending runs at about $88 million a year, the pace implied by management's runway (roughly $263 million of cash and short-term investments at year-end 2025 plus IPO proceeds, lasting through 2028). The cash is nearly used up without an approvable product, leaving roughly $18 million of present value, or about $0.50 per share, and any further funding would come on poor terms. Base case ($1.80 per share): spending of about $70 million a year, between the first-half 2026 pace and the runway pace, leaves roughly $60 million of present value after the trials, or about $1.80 per share on 33.4 million shares. No product income is counted. Bull case ($2.70 per share): spending stays near the first-half 2026 pace of about $57 million a year, leaving roughly $90 million, or about $2.70 per share. This is a value for leftover cash, not a forecast of drug success. What would make this wrong: an approval and launch of the BIM-IOL System would be worth far more than these figures, but that cannot be counted until it has happened or is contracted. The yearly spending levels in each case are our estimates from reported cash flow and management's runway, and actual spending could differ. The company will probably need to raise more money, which would dilute current holders. Stock-based compensation, treated here as a real cost, was $2.8 million in 2025. Cash of $223.1 million excludes any short-term investments the company also holds (about $11 million at the end of 2025).