SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC. (SERA) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Sera Prognostics sells the PreTRM test, a blood test that estimates a pregnant woman's risk of preterm birth. The company is based in Salt Lake City, Utah, and is at a very early stage commercially. Revenue was about $81 thousand in 2025 (about $77 thousand in 2024), against a net loss of $31.9 million. Through the first half of 2026 revenue was $44 thousand and operating cash outflow was $15.1 million. What we measure. We value a company by the cash it can produce for its owners after stock-based pay and the spending needed to stay in business. For Sera that figure has been negative every year we could compute: roughly $(1.42) per share in 2022, $(1.16) in 2023, $(0.98) in 2024 and $(0.64) in 2025. The improvement in 2025 comes mainly from a larger share count after the February 2025 stock offering, which raised about $53.6 million; total cash burn was roughly $31 million on our basis in 2025 versus about $33 million in 2024. Stock-based compensation of about $5 million a year is treated as a real cost. What supports the company. The clinical evidence is real. The PRIME study, run with Elevance Health and published in January 2026, reported a 20% reduction in NICU admissions and a 56% reduction in babies born before 32 weeks for women tested and treated. Elevance Health, whose plans cover more than 10% of U.S. pregnancies, has a commercial collaboration agreement with Sera dating from February 2021 that included minimum test purchases and minimum annual payments for its first three years. Sera also had $95.8 million in cash and securities at the end of 2025, enough to fund operations for several years at the recent burn rate without a going-concern warning. Why all three cases are $0 per share. Our method credits only earnings that are already contracted or that come from a mechanism the business has repeatedly demonstrated. Sera has neither: revenue has been between $25 thousand and $306 thousand a year since 2020, the Elevance minimums were three-year floors that have not turned into meaningful ongoing sales, and the filing itself says payer contracts that would generate significant revenue are still being pursued. Broader coverage, physician adoption and new tests are hoped-for events, not evidenced ones, so they are left out of every case. The bull case therefore also has no earnings to discount, and the bear case is the same $0 with the added risk that further share sales dilute owners to keep the company running. The company's cash is not added to these values; it is funding continued losses, not producing earnings for owners. What would make this wrong. If payers begin covering PreTRM broadly and test volumes rise from thousands of dollars of revenue to many millions with a lab cost base that does not grow as fast, the business could become worth a meaningful amount. We would need to see that in reported revenue and cash flow before crediting it. Data note: working-capital movements for 2022 to 2024 were taken from the annual filings' cash-flow discussion; we did not build a series for earlier years because the company was private or newly public and the figures are small relative to later years.