$0.00
$0.90
bear $0.00
base $0.00
bull $0.90
margin of safety $0.00
market price* $2.03
Business condition attached to the margin of safety
At least two consecutive years in which cash from operations, after stock-based compensation and equipment spending, is roughly break-even or better.
Seer sells the Proteograph Product Suite, a set of consumable assay kits, an automation instrument and analysis software that lets researchers measure proteins in blood plasma at large scale. The Proteograph ONE assay and the SP200 instrument launched in May 2025. Revenue was $16.6 million in 2025 (up from $14.2 million in 2024), and about 40% of it came from outside the United States, mainly Asia and Europe. In the first six months of 2026, revenue was $5.9 million against $8.3 million a year earlier. The business does not currently produce owner earnings; it consumes them. Cash used in operations was $44.4 million in 2025 and $46.1 million in 2024. After also treating stock-based compensation ($15.4 million in 2025) and maintenance equipment spending as real costs, owner earnings were about negative $60 million in 2025, or about negative $1.05 per share. On the same basis they were about negative $1.25 per share in 2024, negative $1.53 in 2023 and negative $1.51 in 2022. The loss has narrowed by about $34 million over three years, because cash used in operations, stock compensation and equipment spending all fell. In the first half of 2026 cash used in operations was $25.0 million, essentially unchanged from $26.1 million a year earlier, and the pace of the decline in losses has slowed. Depreciation and other non-cash charges are added back as usual, and the cash-flow build reconciles to net loss plus non-cash charges within rounding. What the company owns: cash and investments of about $209 million at June 30, 2026 (about $3.70 per share on 56.2 million shares at year-end 2025). That cash is being used up by the operating losses. At a burn of about $58 million a year, it lasts roughly three and a half years. A valuation of the business has to weigh that cash against the losses the business will consume, not count the cash as a separate prize. Management has bought back stock ($10.2 million in 2025), but nothing in the filings commits it to returning the remaining cash. Bear case, $0.00 per share: revenue keeps falling as in the first half of 2026, and losses continue near $58 million a year. The cash and investments are consumed within about three to four years, and the office and laboratory lease in Redwood City, California, which runs to September 2032, remains an obligation. Shareholders are left with nothing, and further share issuance would be needed to keep going. Base case, $0.00 per share: losses stay around the current level, since the first half of 2026 shows no meaningful further improvement. No breakeven is credited because nothing in the filings shows revenue reaching the level needed. The cash funds the losses and is used up, leaving nothing for shareholders. Bull case, $0.90 per share: the company keeps narrowing its losses at the pace it achieved from 2022 to 2025, about $11 million a year, starting from about $58 million. Losses would reach roughly zero in about five years. Discounted at 6%, the cumulative losses come to about $159 million, which leaves about $50 million of the $209 million in cash, or about $0.90 per share. Revenue growth from the 2025 product launches is not credited, because the first half of 2026 shows revenue falling, and no earnings after break-even are credited, because nothing in the filings shows the business earning a positive return. We tested the case against the most recent quarterly results. The first-half 2026 figures (revenue down and cash used in operations flat) did not support a faster path to break-even, so we did not credit one. The company's 10-K says it believes it has enough cash for the next twelve months, and we found no warning about its ability to continue as a going concern. What would make this wrong: a sustained cut in the cost base that ends the cash burn much faster than the recent pace, an acquisition of the company for its technology or cash, or a decision to wind down operations and return cash to shareholders. None of these is documented in the filings, so none is counted.