$41.78
$86.22
bear $41.78
base $56.33
bull $86.22
margin of safety $38.00
market price* $152.64
Revvity sells the instruments, reagents, diagnostic tests and software that drug developers, academic labs, hospitals and screening labs use for research and testing. Its two segments are Life Sciences (about $1.43 billion of 2025 revenue, including BioLegend antibodies and the Signals software business) and Diagnostics (about $1.42 billion, including EUROIMMUN autoimmune and infectious-disease tests, newborn screening and reproductive health). Because customers keep buying reagents and tests once an instrument or platform is installed, the business is recurring in nature. We value only the business as it exists after the 2023 sale of its Applied, Food and Enterprise Services units. Results from 2020 to 2022 are excluded from the level we rely on because they carry the pandemic testing windfall, and 2023 is distorted by tax and other payments tied to the sale. How we measure earnings. We start from cash from operations of the continuing business, remove swings in receivables, inventory, payables and accruals, and subtract stock compensation and the part of capital spending needed just to stay in business (nearly all of the roughly $75 to $90 million a year). We then add back cash interest paid, so that we value the business before its lenders and subtract the debt afterward. On this basis the business produced about $642 million in 2023, $650 million in 2024 and $678 million in 2025 before paying interest. We use the middle year, $650 million, as the starting level for 2023 to 2025, the only years that describe the current company. The 2025 figure includes a $97 million working-capital outflow that the company attributes mainly to slower collections in China. We removed it rather than treat it as permanent, and the company's first-half 2026 receivables moved back in the other direction by about $44 million. Independent build-ups from net income plus non-cash charges matched the cash-flow figures within about 1% in 2024 and 2025. Amortization of acquired intangibles (about $141 million in 2025) is a non-cash charge and is added back; we account for the fact that those acquired franchises wear out through the flat growth path and the fade after year 10, not by lowering today's earnings. Growth. In 2025 the business's pre-interest cash flow grew about 4.4%, and the base case assumes 0% growth in year 1, at or below that pace. We credit no growth in the base case. Revenue is growing about 2% to 4% a year, but that depends on end markets expanding and on share gains, neither of which is locked in. Margins also fell by about 104 basis points in 2025 because of tariffs (about $25 million of added cost), currency and product mix. Small acquisitions such as the $72 million ACD/Labs software purchase are not credited because there is no long, steady record of them. Base case: $56.33 a share. Cash flow stays flat at $650 million for ten years, then declines 4% a year, because no new product line that could replace the acquired franchises as they age is contracted or under way. The business is worth about $8.27 billion. It owes about $1.98 billion net, leaving about $6.29 billion, or $56.33 on 111.6 million diluted shares. Bull case: $86.22 a share. Cash flow starts from the 2025 level of $678 million and grows 2.5% a year for ten years, which is at or below the roughly 2.8% annual growth it showed from 2023 to 2025. This is supported by software revenue rising $35.6 million in 2025 and the deferred (prepaid) revenue balance rising to $224.8 million from $212.8 million. After year 10 it declines 2% a year. The business is worth about $11.61 billion, less $1.98 billion of net debt, leaving about $9.63 billion. Bear case: $41.78 a share. Cash flow drops $15 million immediately, reflecting a full year of the tariff costs seen in 2025, then falls $10 million a year as China (revenue $425 million in 2025, down from $450 million in 2024 and $454 million in 2023, with China testing policy changes already cutting Diagnostics margin from 26.1% to 24.2%) keeps shrinking. After year 10 it declines 6% a year because nothing named replaces ageing acquired products. The business is worth about $6.64 billion, less $1.98 billion of net debt, leaving about $4.66 billion. Debt. At the July 5, 2026 balance sheet the company had about $3.2 billion of borrowings (all fixed-rate senior notes): euro notes at 1.875% due in 2026 (about $572 million), $500 million at 1.9% due 2028, $850 million at 3.3% due 2029, $400 million at 2.55% and $500 million at 2.25% both due 2031, and $400 million at 3.625% due 2051. Because most of these pay well below 6% for years, we reduce the debt by about $352 million, the present value of that interest saving over each note's remaining life. We count $150 million of the $1.02 billion cash as needed to run the business, leaving about $873 million of spare cash, so net debt is about $1.98 billion (about $17.74 a share). Annual interest of about $85 million is covered roughly seven times by even the bear case's cash flow, and the 2028 and 2029 maturities can be refinanced at higher rates without threatening the business. The higher rate on that refinancing is not reflected in the bear value beyond the fixed-coupon adjustment. What changed. Our August 2026 analysis showed $20, $49 and $71 for the bear, base and bull cases. The new figures are higher mainly because we now discount every company at a flat 6% rather than 10%, and because we remove the China collection timing from cash flow and value the business before its debt. Our view of the business itself is not more optimistic. Our base case still credits no growth, and the bear case now carries specific, dated risks (China, tariffs, wearing-out acquired products) rather than a higher discount rate. What would make this wrong. Persistent China collection problems that turn into write-offs, further tariff or reimbursement changes that cut Diagnostics margin faster than $10 million a year, or an acquisition on the scale of BioLegend that is funded with new debt would each lower the value. The company also has to manage $3.2 billion of debt against a business generating about $650 million of pre-interest cash. We could not tie the roughly $57 million H1 2026 working-capital outflow in the quarterly figures to a stated cause, so we use annual figures only.