RUM Group Inc. (RUM) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

RUM Group (formerly Rumble Inc.) runs the Rumble video platform - Rumble Video, the Rumble Studio livestreaming tool, the Rumble Advertising Center ad marketplace and the Rumble Wallet, which lets viewers tip creators in crypto - plus Rumble Cloud, a cloud-computing service. On June 17, 2026 it acquired about 85% of Northern Data AG, a German AI-cloud and data-center operator with about 22,400 Nvidia GPUs (20,400 H100s and 2,000 H200s) and a data-center site in Maysville, Georgia planned for up to 180MW on completion. Tether, the stablecoin issuer, is the company's central partner: it bought 103.3 million shares at $7.50 in February 2025, received 98.3 million pre-funded warrants and a euro-denominated note as part of the Northern Data purchase price, and committed to $50 million a year of advertising for two years from February 16, 2026. Chris Pavlovski holds super-majority voting control. Earning power. We measure the cash an owner could take out of the business after stock-based pay and the capital spending needed to stand still, and we strip out swings in working capital. On that basis the Rumble business has never made money: it consumed about $12 million in 2021, $35 million in 2022, $130 million in 2023, $113 million in 2024 and $106 million in 2025. Stock compensation ($24 million in 2025) is treated as a real cost. We use 2023-2025, the years the platform has run at its current scale, as the reference period: the typical year consumed about $113 million and the latest year $106 million, an improvement of about 6%. In 2025 cost of services ($107 million) still exceeded revenue ($101 million), and about 90% of revenue came from the United States. The first half of 2026 did not change the picture: excluding deal costs, depreciation and digital-asset price swings, the operating loss was about $50 million versus about $57 million a year earlier, and most of that improvement is Tether's advertising spend ($6.7 million versus $1.0 million). Northern Data. Had it been owned for the whole first half of 2026, Northern Data would have added $168 million of revenue and a $545 million pre-tax loss. We could not reconcile how much of that loss is cash, because the filings give no separate cash-flow figures for it. In its first 13 days under the company it contributed $10.1 million of revenue and a $12.0 million pre-tax loss, while group depreciation and amortization rose by about $12 million over the prior quarter - so the operation appears to run near cash break-even (roughly $10 million a year) before any new equipment spending. That depreciation pace, roughly $340 million a year against $887 million of acquired property and equipment, shows the GPU fleet is a fast-wasting asset that would need similar spending to keep current. We therefore value it as a run-off: about $10 million a year of cash for three years, of which the company owns 85%. We do not credit the $887 million fair value assigned to its equipment in the acquisition accounting, or completion of the Maysville site, because neither is cash the business has shown it can earn. The company has also exercised an option to buy power generators for about $26.7 million, which we deduct. Debt and share count. The company owes Tether a note of 317.5 million euros (about $367 million at acquisition) bearing EURIBOR plus 3% and due June 18, 2031; we make no adjustment for its interest rate. Tether can exchange it into shares until June 2027 at the greater of the recent average price and $7.88, which is not certain, so we treat it as debt. Against this sit $203 million of cash and $20 million of digital assets at June 30, 2026. Lease payments are left out because they already run through the cash figures. We count about 422 million economic shares - Class A shares, the exchangeable shares of the Canadian subsidiary and Tether's pre-funded warrants - excluding 76.4 million earn-out shares held in escrow that are released only if the share price reaches $15.00-$17.50 before September 16, 2027. Cases, all valued at 6%. Bear: the platform keeps consuming its typical $113 million a year for five more years, funded by further outside capital as Tether's 2025 investment has funded it; Tether's advertising continues only at the pace recognized in the second quarter of 2026 (about $22 million a year) until the commitment ends, credited at a 50% margin; Northern Data adds nothing. The business plus cash is worth about -$262 million against $367 million owed, leaving about -$628 million, or -$1.49 a share: the company would owe far more than it is worth, and the 2031 note would likely need refinancing or dilution. Base: the burn stays at the 2025 level of $106 million a year - no improvement assumed, against the 6% achieved last year - for three years, roughly as long as today's cash and digital assets plus one more year of outside funding, after which we assume no further value either way, because nothing in the filings shows how the losses end. Tether pays the remaining ~$93 million of its advertising commitment, credited at a 50% margin, and Northern Data runs off as described. The business plus cash is worth about -$21 million against $367 million owed, leaving about -$387 million, or -$0.92 a share. Bull: the burn keeps narrowing at the 6% pace of 2025 and ends after two years; Tether's full advertising commitment is credited at a 75% margin; and Tether buys the full $150 million of GPU services it committed to purchase "up to" over two years, credited at a 70% margin on top of the run-off. The business plus cash is worth about $190 million against $367 million owed, leaving about -$177 million, or -$0.42 a share. Not credited in any case: audience or advertiser growth, the planned AI-infrastructure build-out at Maysville, a turnaround to profitability, and any share-price-dependent conversion of the Tether note or release of the earn-out shares - none is secured or part of a demonstrated record. What would make this wrong: if Northern Data's GPU fleet actually generates substantial cash - its revenue pace of over $300 million a year means it could, if most of the reported loss is non-cash - or if the equipment could be sold for something near its acquisition value, the shares could be worth more than zero. Until the business shows it can generate cash, no share price offers a margin of safety on these numbers.