PARKS AMERICA, INC (PRKA) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

WHAT THE BUSINESS IS Parks! America owns and runs three drive-through wild animal safari parks: Wild Animal Safari in Pine Mountain, Georgia (about 56% of park revenue in fiscal 2025), Wild Animal Safari in Strafford, Missouri, and Aggieland Safari near Bryan/College Station, Texas, which it bought in April 2020. It owns the land under all three parks, about 1,200 acres in total. Nearly all revenue comes from admissions, animal encounters, food and the gift shops. Most of it arrives between spring break and Labor Day, so weather in those months matters a lot. Fiscal 2025 revenue (year ending late September) was $10.5 million, and revenue for the nine months to June 2026 was up 8.8%. SHARE COUNT In April 2025 the company did a 1-for-500 reverse split followed right away by a 5-for-1 forward split. Together that works out to 1 new share for every 100 old ones. About 750,000 shares are now outstanding, and every per-share figure below uses that post-split count. HOW WE MEASURED EARNINGS We start from cash generated by operations and take out swings in working capital. We then subtract stock compensation and the capital spending needed just to keep the parks as they are. That spending is large. Exhibits, fencing, roads, vehicles and animals need constant replacement. Capital spending averaged about 10% of revenue over the past ten years and reached 17% in 2022 and 2023. We counted it all as upkeep except where revenue actually grew. In 2022 we also counted an equipment finance lease as capital spending. On this basis, owner earnings per share were: - 2016 to 2019 (two parks): $1.51, $2.65, $1.55 and $1.47 - 2020 and 2021 (Texas added, plus pandemic demand for outdoor outings): $3.81 and $3.58 - 2022 to 2024: -$0.48, -$0.44 and -$1.84 - 2025: $2.12 The weak years have clear causes. In 2022, spending stayed heavy while revenue fell back from its pandemic peak. In March 2023 an EF-3 tornado shut the Georgia park for 20 days over spring break, costing it about $1.0 million of revenue. In 2024 the company spent $2.04 million fighting a proxy contest with activist shareholder Focused Compounding. That fight ended in June 2024 with the activist's nominees holding four of seven board seats and Geoff Gannon becoming president. Two things flattered the 2025 figure: $0.67 million of insurance recoveries and waived legal fees, and almost no cash tax because of the 2024 loss. Without them, 2025 comes to roughly $1.10 to $1.20 per share. The latest twelve months look better, around $2 per share. Revenue has grown while overhead stayed flat: nine-month revenue rose about $640,000 against only $53,000 more in selling and administrative costs. We take normal earning power to be $1.53 per share, about $1.15 million a year. That is the median of the last ten years, a period that covers the pre-pandemic business, the pandemic boom, the 2022-2024 slump and the 2025 recovery. It sits between the cleaned-up 2025 figure and the latest twelve months. We did not use the latest twelve months alone. BASE CASE: $44 PER SHARE Owner earnings grow 4% a year for five years and 3% a year for the five after that. This rests on pricing and attendance gains already shown in the filings. Texas park revenue rose 28% in fiscal 2025 after new admission pricing started in May 2025. Missouri rose 7.5% on new marketing and a 65% jump in animal-encounter revenue. Georgia was flat because of a rainy summer. The first-year rate of 4% is well below the 8.8% revenue growth of the latest nine months. After year ten we assume about 2% a year growth. The parks sit on owned land and have run for decades, and revenue at the two original parks grew about 5% a year from 2016 to 2025. That record is the basis for the 2%. About 70% of the base value comes from years beyond ten, and that is the main assumption a reader should weigh. BEAR CASE: $10 PER SHARE Revenue stalls near $10.5 million and costs stay at their 2025 level. Upkeep spending returns to the heavy 2022-2023 pace of about 13% of revenue. Storm damage hit the Georgia park in 2019 and 2023, and a rainy summer hurt it in 2025, so weather costs are a recurring expense and not a one-time surprise. With full cash taxes, owner earnings settle near $0.60 per share and stay there. Debt is not the danger here: at June 2026 the company owed about $2.9 million on term loans (refinanced in late 2024 with Cendera Bank) and held $4.3 million in cash. Book equity is about $21 per share, mostly land, park facilities and animals. That is real property but not a cash floor. BULL CASE: $66 PER SHARE Earnings start at $1.75 per share, below the latest twelve months. They grow 7% a year for five years as the Texas pricing and marketing gains hold, and as higher revenue spreads over largely fixed staffing and overhead. Growth is then 4% a year for five years and about 2.5% after that. OTHER NOTES All cases are discounted at 6%. We did not subtract debt separately because owner earnings are already measured after interest. WHAT COULD MAKE THIS WRONG - Spending and cost control slip back to 2022-2024 levels. - Another severe storm hits Georgia, which brings in more than half of park revenue. - The Texas park loses its recent gains. - Board turnover returns. The company is also very small and thinly traded. Its roughly 750,000 shares trade on the OTCQX market, and it had about 326 holders of record in December 2025. MARGIN-OF-SAFETY PRICE: $21 That is about half of base value and close to book value. It works out to roughly 7% of normal owner earnings per year, and 9-10% of recent earnings. The estimate applies a wide margin because the company is small, illiquid and exposed to weather, and because 2022 to 2024 showed its earnings can disappear for several years at a stretch.