ProMIS Neurosciences Inc. (PMN) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

ProMIS Neurosciences is a clinical-stage biotech developing antibodies meant to target only the toxic, misfolded forms of proteins involved in neurodegenerative disease. It has no products and has never had revenue. Almost all of its value rests on one drug candidate, PMN310, an antibody aimed at toxic amyloid-beta oligomers in Alzheimer's disease. PMN310 is in a Phase 1b trial called PRECISE-AD. The trial finished enrolling 144 patients at 21 sites in the United States in December 2025. Patients get a monthly dose at one of three levels (5, 10 or 20 mg/kg) or placebo for 12 months. The FDA granted PMN310 Fast Track designation in July 2025. In a press release filed with the SEC on July 28, 2026, the company reported what it called positive six-month interim safety and biomarker data. That data was still blinded, so it cannot yet show whether the drug beats placebo. The company expects all patient visits to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2026 and top-line results in early 2027. How we measure earnings: we start from operating cash flow, strip out swings in working capital, and subtract stock-based pay as a real cost. The company spends almost nothing on equipment. On that basis the business has consumed cash every year we can measure: about $9.7 million in 2021, $22.9 million in 2022, $14.1 million in 2023, $16.3 million in 2024 and $39.7 million in 2025. The first half of 2026 consumed another $20.0 million. The jump in 2025 came from running PRECISE-AD, with research spending of $33.4 million that year. We base our view on the current spending rate of about $40 million a year, not the five-year median, because the business now is running a 144-patient trial and earlier years do not reflect that. Spending rose about 144% in 2025. Our base case holds it flat, not higher, for the next year, and the first half of 2026 supports that. The losses in 2024 needed care. That year the company reported a small accounting profit of $2.8 million, but only because of a $22.5 million non-cash gain from revaluing warrants issued in its July 2024 private placement, partly offset by other non-cash items. Its operations still used cash. Per-share figures for earlier years are adjusted for the 1-for-25 reverse share split in 2025. Our valuation discounts future cash flows at 6% and counts only drivers we can point to in the company's filings. PMN310 has no approval, no partner and no license deal. The company's filings describe no signed contract that would bring in money. So no case includes future drug sales or licensing income. A successful trial could change that, but today it is a possibility, not something we can build on. Each case is therefore the present value of the cash the business is committed to spend, spread over about 9.14 million shares. That is the average share count for the second quarter of 2026, and it includes pre-funded warrants. We do not add the cash on the balance sheet (about $53.4 million at June 30, 2026, mostly from a $75.5 million private placement in January 2026). That cash is exactly what pays for this spending. Base case, about -$5.27 per share: the company follows the plan in its latest annual report. It spends about $40 million a year through the end of 2027, the point its current cash is expected to last. Top-line data arrives in early 2027. After that we assume no further value, because nothing has yet been signed. The present value of that spending is about -$48 million. Bear case, about -$10.34 per share: spending rises to about $45 million a year and continues through 2028 as the company moves toward a larger follow-on study. That extra spending would be paid for by selling new shares. The company states that it will need more funding for future clinical work, and its spending more than doubled in 2025. This case costs about $95 million in present value. Bull case, about -$1.94 per share: the trial wraps up on schedule in the fourth quarter of 2026. Top-line data arrives in early 2027, and spending falls away as the trial ends. After the readout, whatever comes next, such as a partnership or a larger trial, is new information to be valued at that point. This case costs about $18 million in present value. What the negative values mean: they do not come from debt. They mean that, on the evidence available today, the business is a program that spends shareholders' money on a scientific bet whose payoff cannot yet be measured. Shareholders' losses are limited to what they pay. Anyone who pays more than zero is paying for the chance that PMN310 works, and that is outside what this method can value. Other things to know: warrants sold in January 2026 can be exercised at $14.40 until 60 days after the top-line data, and they would add shares. The company fell below Nasdaq's $1.00 minimum bid price in January 2025 and regained compliance on December 12, 2025. What would make this wrong: clear, placebo-controlled evidence that PMN310 slows the disease or has a clearly lower brain-swelling risk than current Alzheimer's antibodies. That result would need to be followed by a signed partnership or license with disclosed terms. Together they would give us a source of cash we could value. We would revisit the company then.