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PARK AEROSPACE CORP (PKE) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Margin of safety$9.00 ComplexityAverage Updated
Analysis Owner's Earnings Geography Growth Strategy Chart Analysis Competitors Circle of Competence
$8.74 $19.01
bear $8.74 base $15.14 bull $19.01 margin of safety $9.00 market price* $26.31
PLACEHOLDER
Fiscal yearOwner's earningsMethodology
2026 $0.62 ▼
OE = CFO - dWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$11,499K; dWC (cash effect of operating asset/liability changes)=$(2,835)K; SBC=$401K; capex=$2,038K, growth capex=$565K (capex/revenue mean 5.01% FY2017-FY2026 x revenue change), maintenance capex=$1,473K; OE=$12,460K; diluted shares=20.117M; OE/sh=$0.6194. Check: net income + D&A + other non-cash charges (ex-SBC) - maintenance capex reconciles to the same figure (0% gap). Working capital includes final transition tax installment (-$4,756K via income taxes payable) and $1.6M ArianeGroup supplier advance in other assets. Source: FY2026 column of the cash flow statement in 10-K accession 0001437749-26-018900.
2025 $0.51 ▼
OE = CFO - dWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$4,717K; dWC (cash effect of operating asset/liability changes)=$(6,554)K; SBC=$402K; capex=$889K, growth capex=$302K (capex/revenue mean 5.01% FY2017-FY2026 x revenue change), maintenance capex=$587K; OE=$10,282K; diluted shares=20.190M; OE/sh=$0.5093. Check: net income + D&A + other non-cash charges (ex-SBC) - maintenance capex reconciles to the same figure (0% gap). Working capital includes transition tax installment (-$3,974K via income taxes payable). Source: FY2025 column of the cash flow statement in 10-K accession 0001437749-26-018900.
2024 $0.49 ▼
OE = CFO - dWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$4,408K; dWC (cash effect of operating asset/liability changes)=$(6,739)K; SBC=$529K; capex=$645K, growth capex=$98K (capex/revenue mean 5.01% FY2017-FY2026 x revenue change), maintenance capex=$547K; OE=$10,071K; diluted shares=20.393M; OE/sh=$0.4938. Check: net income + D&A + other non-cash charges (ex-SBC) - maintenance capex reconciles to the same figure (0% gap). Working capital includes transition tax installment outflow via income taxes payable (-$3,745K). Source: FY2024 column of the cash flow statement in 10-K accession 0001437749-26-018900.
2023 $0.41 ▼
OE = CFO - dWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$6,491K; dWC (cash effect of operating asset/liability changes)=$(3,399)K; SBC=$369K; capex=$1,047K, growth capex=$24K (capex/revenue mean 5.01% FY2017-FY2026 x revenue change), maintenance capex=$1,023K; OE=$8,498K; diluted shares=20.509M; OE/sh=$0.4144. Check: net income + D&A + other non-cash charges (ex-SBC) - maintenance capex reconciles to the same figure (0% gap). Other assets/liabilities -$2,723K was mainly the non-cash $2.8M release of uncertain tax positions (Singapore repatriation, statute expiry) and is treated as non-cash, not working capital, so the non-cash tax benefit is excluded. Source: FY2023 column of the cash flow statement in 10-K accession 0001437749-23-014178.
2022 $0.36 ▼
OE = CFO - dWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$8,201K; dWC (cash effect of operating asset/liability changes)=$(3,587)K; SBC=$285K; capex=$4,372K, growth capex=$366K (capex/revenue mean 5.01% FY2017-FY2026 x revenue change), maintenance capex=$4,006K; OE=$7,497K; diluted shares=20.551M; OE/sh=$0.3648. Check: net income + D&A + other non-cash charges (ex-SBC) - maintenance capex reconciles to the same figure (0% gap). Expansion build capex still elevated. Source: FY2022 column of the cash flow statement in 10-K accession 0001437749-23-014178.
2021 $0.03 ▼
OE = CFO - dWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$13,340K; dWC (cash effect of operating asset/liability changes)=$4,996K; SBC=$191K; capex=$7,493K, growth capex=$0 (revenue declined or base year), maintenance capex=$7,493K; OE=$660K; diluted shares=20.478M; OE/sh=$0.0322. Check: net income + D&A + other non-cash charges (ex-SBC) - maintenance capex reconciles to the same figure (0% gap). Continuing operations (CFO continuing $13,340K; total $13,012K incl. discontinued -$328K). Revenue fell so all capex (mostly Newton expansion build) treated as maintenance. Source: FY2021 column of the cash flow statement in 10-K accession 0001437749-23-014178.
2020 $0.46 ▼
OE = CFO - dWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$5,871K; dWC (cash effect of operating asset/liability changes)=$(10,813)K; SBC=$726K; capex=$6,846K, growth capex=$446K (capex/revenue mean 5.01% FY2017-FY2026 x revenue change), maintenance capex=$6,400K; OE=$9,558K; diluted shares=20.595M; OE/sh=$0.4641. Check: net income + D&A + other non-cash charges (ex-SBC) - maintenance capex reconciles to the same figure (0% gap). Continuing operations. Other assets/liabilities +$3,348K was a non-cash increase in unrecognized tax benefits ($1,016K to $4,356K) and is treated as a non-cash charge, not working capital; income taxes payable outflow of $8,973K treated as working capital. Capex was largely the Newton, KS expansion but revenue growth formula assigns it to maintenance. Source: FY2020 column of the cash flow statement in 10-K accession 0001437749-20-010729.
2019 $0.30 ▼
OE = CFO - dWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$8,060K; dWC (cash effect of operating asset/liability changes)=$(1,578)K; SBC=$1,249K; capex=$2,764K, growth capex=$545K (capex/revenue mean 5.01% FY2017-FY2026 x revenue change), maintenance capex=$2,219K; OE=$6,170K; diluted shares=20.385M; OE/sh=$0.3027. Check: net income + D&A + other non-cash charges (ex-SBC) - maintenance capex reconciles to the same figure (0% gap). Continuing operations (Electronics Business sold Dec 4, 2018, to AGC Inc.). Source: FY2019 column of the cash flow statement in 10-K accession 0001437749-20-010729.
2018 -$1.29 ▼
OE = CFO - dWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$(6,264)K; dWC (cash effect of operating asset/liability changes)=$18,348K; SBC=$1,445K; capex=$571K, growth capex=$421K (capex/revenue mean 5.01% FY2017-FY2026 x revenue change), maintenance capex=$150K; OE=$(26,207)K; diluted shares=20.267M; OE/sh=$-1.2931. Check: net income + D&A + other non-cash charges (ex-SBC) - maintenance capex reconciles to the same figure (0% gap). Continuing operations. Distorted by the one-time US Tax Act transition tax on deemed repatriated foreign earnings, charged here in full (accrued via income taxes payable +$20,501K, paid in installments FY2019-FY2026); excluded from anchor. Source: FY2018 column of the cash flow statement in 10-K accession 0001437749-20-010729.
2017 -$0.01 ▼
OE = CFO - dWC - SBC - maintenance capex. CFO=$1,283K; dWC (cash effect of operating asset/liability changes)=$289K; SBC=$1,214K; capex=$68K, growth capex=$0 (revenue declined or base year), maintenance capex=$68K; OE=$(288)K; diluted shares=20.239M; OE/sh=$-0.0142. Check: net income + D&A + other non-cash charges (ex-SBC) - maintenance capex reconciles to the same figure (0% gap). Continuing (aerospace) operations as restated after the Dec 2018 sale of the Electronics Business; burdened by pre-sale corporate overhead. Source: FY2017 column of the cash flow statement in 10-K accession 0001437749-19-010516.

Owner's earnings per share by fiscal year, most recent first. Tap a row to see how that figure was calculated, including the source filing.

Sales geography
North America (95.8% of fiscal 2026 sales), Europe (2.5%), Asia (1.7%); sales are attributed by the region where the materials are delivered.
Historical growth strategy
Organic growth: qualifying its proprietary composite materials, adhesives and ablatives onto long-lived aircraft, engine, space and missile programs and adding capacity at its single Newton, Kansas site (an expansion completed in fiscal 2024 doubled the facilities). In December 2018 it sold its electronics materials business to AGC Inc. for $145 million to focus purely on aerospace, returning much of the proceeds through special dividends. A second, new composites plant is now planned, partly funded by an at-the-market stock offering begun in January 2026.
Chart analysis
On third-party dividend-adjusted price data, the shares spent roughly 2016 through 2024 in a long sideways base between about $8 and $15, including a dip toward the high-$7s in 2020. A chartist would read 2025 as a breakout from that multi-year base (up about 50% for the year), followed by a strong 2026 advance to a new all-time high near $36 in late May 2026, with prices around $32 in mid-June. The pattern is a steep, momentum-driven uptrend well above the old range, where a chartist would watch whether the former ceiling around the low $20s holds as support on any pullback.
Competitors

Companies we consider competitors of PKE. Tap a ticker to open our analysis of that company in a new tab.

Circle of competence

We don't have circle of competence information for this company yet.