Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. (PINE) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Alpine Income Property Trust owns 127 single-tenant, net-leased commercial properties (4.3 million square feet) in 32 states. At the end of 2025 the portfolio was 99.5% occupied with a weighted average remaining lease term of 8.4 years. Tenants pay property costs, so the trust's cost of staying in business is low. Its largest tenants are Lowe's (11% of lease income) and Walgreens (10%). It also holds a smaller book of commercial mortgage loans and investments. Revenue has grown from $19.2 million in 2020 to $60.5 million in 2025, and about $378 million of debt funds part of the portfolio, including term loans maturing in 2029 and 2031. What we measured. We estimate the cash the business generates for shareholders as operating cash flow, less timing swings in working capital (prepaid rent, deferred revenue, accruals), less stock compensation, less the cost of maintaining properties. Interest is already paid out of operating cash flow, so debt is not deducted a second time. Purchases of new properties are treated as optional growth spending rather than upkeep. Property improvements are treated as upkeep, other than a small growth share. This produced $1.06, $1.53, $1.74, $1.44, $1.66 and $1.40 per share for 2020 to 2025. We centre value on the median of 2021 to 2025, $1.53 per share, and leave out 2020 because the portfolio was still being assembled after the November 2019 IPO. 2025 was lower mainly because spending on real estate improvements rose to $7.2 million from $0.8 million in 2024. Growth reconciliation. Per-share earning power fell about 16% in 2025 ($1.40 versus $1.66). Our base case does not assume growth from that level; it returns to the five-year median, which the business met or exceeded in three of the last five years, and then holds it flat. That is a return to a normal level, not growth. What we did not credit. Total revenue more than tripled since 2020 through acquisitions, but the weighted diluted share count nearly doubled (8.8 million to 15.6 million), and owner earnings per share has stayed in a $1.40 to $1.74 band for five years. Growth paid for by issuing new shares and debt has not raised per-share earnings, and each acquisition is a fresh bet, so no acquisition growth is included in any case. Rent escalators, new loans and margin improvement are also left out because we could not tie them to a secured amount. Base case ($19.5 per share): $1.53 per share held flat for 10 years, supported by the 8.4-year average lease term and 99.5% occupancy. After that, leases must be renewed or re-let and the buildings age, so we let earnings decline 4% a year rather than assume they persist forever. Bear case ($11.2 per share): Walgreens (10% of lease income) is the exposure we can see. The trust sold four Walgreens properties in 2025 at a combined loss of $4.3 million, and impairment charges have risen from $1.7 million in 2024 to $7.4 million in 2025. We take Walgreens rent out (about $0.37 per share), leaving $1.16, and let earnings decline 2% a year as expiring leases are re-let on weaker terms. Beyond year 10 earnings decline 10% a year. Higher interest when the 2029 term loans are refinanced would push results lower still. Bull case ($24.7 per share): the trust's best recent result, $1.74 per share (2022), is sustained for 10 years as leases renew on the visible terms, then declines 2% a year. Value. We see the shares as worth roughly $11 to $25, with $19.5 as the middle estimate. The wide gap reflects leverage of about $378 million of debt against about $60 million of annual revenue. This could be wrong if tenant credit holds up better than the Walgreens sales suggest, or if new acquisitions start adding to earnings per share instead of only to the share count. Some large working-capital movements (prepaid rent reductions of $2.3 million in 2024 and $2.8 million in 2025) were treated as timing and excluded; if they are permanent, earnings per share would be lower.