Passage BIO, Inc. (PASG) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Passage Bio is a clinical-stage gene therapy company. Its only clinical product candidate is PBFT02, a one-time gene replacement therapy delivered to the brain, aimed first at frontotemporal dementia caused by progranulin deficiency. It has no product sales. Its cash flow is negative every year: operating cash flow was a loss of $31.5 million in 2025 and $48.0 million in 2024, after $118 million in 2022. On our measure (operating cash flow, less working-capital movements, less stock compensation, less maintenance capex), the business consumed about $38.5 million in 2025, or about $12.14 per share, and about $58.0 million in 2024, or $18.84 per share (share counts adjusted for the 1-for-20 reverse split in July 2025). About $4.0 million in 2025 and $8.2 million in 2024 came from non-refundable sublicense and transition payments; we treated these as working-capital movements, not earnings. Impairments of long-lived assets ($6.1 million in 2025) are non-cash and were added back, which is standard. Our approach credits only value that can be named and evidenced today: contracts, revenue, or approvals already in hand. Passage Bio has none. PBFT02 is unapproved, and the company itself states that regulators may never approve it. Cash and equivalents were $46.3 million at the end of 2025 against a burn of about $31.5 million a year, and management expects that cash to fund operations for at least twelve months from the filing. Any later funding would have to come from new share sales, which dilute today's holders. Bear case: cash runs out before PBFT02 shows results that justify further funding, or financing arrives on heavily dilutive terms. Value per share is $0. Base case: the company continues to spend on development with no approved product and no contracted revenue we can point to; the ongoing losses are not offset by anything evidenced, so value per share is $0. Bull case: the lead program advances, but approval, sales and margins are all still ahead of it and none is secured, so we cannot credit them. Value per share is $0 here as well, and the shares should be regarded as an option on clinical success rather than a business we can value from today's evidence. What would make this wrong: positive pivotal-stage data for PBFT02, a partnership with committed payments, or an approval. Any of these would give us named drivers to value. We would revisit at that point. The balance sheet cash is not counted as value, because the company is spending it faster than the business earns anything.