OXBRIDGE RE HOLDINGS Ltd (OXBR) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Oxbridge Re Holdings is a very small Cayman Islands reinsurer. It writes property and casualty reinsurance and, through its 80%-owned SurancePlus subsidiary, has begun offering tokenized reinsurance vehicles funded by outside token holders. In 2025 it earned about $2.3 million of premiums and $2.6 million of total revenue, and lost about $2.1 million. Why we assign no value. We measure what the business earns for its owners as cash from operations, less the working-capital swings, less stock-based pay, less the capital spending needed to stay in business. On that basis Oxbridge has been negative every year we can measure: roughly $(0.05) per share in 2020 and 2021, $(0.17) in 2022, $(0.26) in 2023, $(0.08) in 2024 and $(0.24) in 2025. Cash from operations was $(1.3) million in 2025 after $(0.3) million in 2024 (a figure restated downward in the latest filing; we use the restated one). Stock-based pay added another $0.4 million of real cost in 2025. Because the company is a reinsurer, movements in premiums receivable and reserves are part of its business float, so we left them inside operating cash flow rather than stripping them out. What keeps the cases at zero. Our approach only credits earnings that are secured or that come from a long, repeatable record. Oxbridge has no multi-year record of positive owner earnings, premium revenue has moved between $0.9 million and $2.3 million with no steady pattern, and 2023 revenue was actually negative because of investment losses. The SurancePlus tokenized model is new, and its underwriting profits belong largely to token holders and are small (about $0.7 million accrued to the parent since inception). Cash on hand, about $7.0 million at year-end 2025, funded the losses and came largely from new share sales ($3.5 million in 2025), which dilutes existing owners: shares outstanding grew from 5.7 million in 2020 to about 8.1 million in 2026. We do not count cash on hand as value separate from earnings, so none of the three cases is assigned a positive value. Bear, base and bull. Bear: the continued cash burn of $1 to $2 million a year is funded by further share issuance, and nothing named turns it around; worth $0. Base: the same, since the company's own results give us no dependable positive earnings level; worth $0. Bull: the business is only breakeven at best. The first half of 2026 showed net income of about $0.2 million but operating cash flow was still slightly negative ($(57) thousand), which is one period and does not qualify as evidence of a new earnings level; worth $0. The company appears to have no debt, so the cases are not below zero. What would make this wrong. If SurancePlus tokenized vehicles grow into a repeatable fee and underwriting stream and total operating cash flow turns durably positive after stock compensation, the value would be higher. We would need several years of that record to credit it. Could not be reconciled. The 2024 operating cash flow was reported as $(1.2) million in the original filing and restated to $(0.3) million in the following year's filing; tokenholder-related flows are presented in financing activities and make comparison across years difficult. Earlier years (2015 to 2019) lack a comparable cash flow series in our data and were not used.