OLD MARKET CAPITAL Corp (OMCC) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Old Market Capital Corporation (OMCC, formerly Nicholas Financial) is a very young combination of a legacy corporate shell and a small rural fiber-and-wireless broadband provider. Until 2024 the company was a subprime auto lender; it sold its entire loan book to Westlake Financial in April 2024 and exited that business entirely. Two months later, in June 2024, it used the cash from that sale to buy a controlling stake (now 61%) in Amplex Electric, a broadband internet, phone and video provider serving about 13,000 customers in rural northwest and north-central Ohio, of which about 4,400 are on Amplex's newer fiber network. The remaining roughly 39% of Amplex is owned by its founder, who has the right (but not before 2029, and not after 2039) to require OMCC to buy out the rest of his stake at a formula-based price. Because the company only became a broadband operator in mid-2024, there is less than a year and a half of financial history for the business as it exists today — everything before that describes a car-loan company that no longer exists. That is an unusually short track record to value a company on, and we say so plainly: the estimates below carry much wider uncertainty than in a typical analysis and should be read as a first-pass judgment rather than a precise estimate. In its first (partial) year under the new structure, Amplex was in heavy construction mode — it built out more than 12,000 "fiber passings" (homes and businesses it can now connect) but had only converted about a third of those into paying fiber subscribers. That construction consumed roughly $8.4 million in capital spending against about $9.4 million of revenue, funded partly by OMCC's own cash and increasingly by a $21 million low-cost construction loan from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's rural broadband program. Operating cash flow for the year was modestly negative. We treated the bulk of that spending as growth investment in new network footprint rather than a cost of running the existing business, and estimated the smaller portion needed to sustain the network already in service using a typical industry maintenance level; on that basis, underlying owner earnings for the year were negative, roughly $(0.50) per share. The most recent quarterly filing shows the trend improving — operating cash flow turned slightly positive and revenue kept growing — while construction spending remained heavy. Our base case assumes the fiber build-out continues for several more years, funded mainly by the government construction loan rather than by drawing down the company's own cash, and that subscriber take-up gradually catches up to the network Amplex has already built, as is typical for a rural fiber provider with limited competition once construction slows. On that path, owner earnings turn durably positive in roughly four to five years and settle into a mature, modestly growing level by year ten. Valuing that stream — together with OMCC's approximately 61% economic claim on it and the separate cash the parent company still holds outside of Amplex — we estimate the shares are worth approximately $7.50 today. Our bear case assumes the build-out disappoints: rural subscriber take-up runs well below plan (a real risk given competition from satellite internet in sparsely populated areas), construction spending stays elevated for longer than the network can support, and the company's stated openness to deploying its remaining cash into unrelated new ventures results in a disappointing outside investment rather than a good one. Under that combination, owner earnings stay weak for most of the next decade and we estimate the shares would be worth only about $1.50. Our bull case assumes the fiber build-out works the way subsidized rural fiber networks often do when they succeed: most of the homes Amplex has already reached convert into subscribers over the next several years, revenue and cash flow scale accordingly, and management successfully redeploys some of its remaining cash into a second investment with economics similar to Amplex's. On that path we estimate the shares could be worth roughly $15.00. Given how little operating history exists for the business in its current form, the margin-of-safety price assumes the fiber build-out actually turns durably cash-flow positive — a couple of consecutive quarters where operating cash flow, after normal network maintenance, is solidly positive. With that caveat, the margin-of-safety price is around $3.75. A couple of items we could not fully reconcile from the filings: the split between cash held at the broadband subsidiary and cash held separately by the parent company is not disclosed, so our estimate of 'excess' corporate cash outside the broadband business is an approximation; and because the subsidiary was only consolidated for part of its first fiscal year, there is not yet a clean same-quarter comparison to check subscriber and revenue trends against.