NewAmsterdam Pharma Co N.V. (NAMS) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

NewAmsterdam Pharma is a clinical-stage drug developer with one product, obicetrapib, an oral once-daily pill that lowers LDL (bad) cholesterol. It has no product sales. Its only revenue is license and development funding from Menarini, which holds European rights (EUR 115 million upfront received, $30 million of further milestones received to date, up to a further $863 million of milestones and low-double-digit to mid-twenties percent royalties if the drug is approved and sold). The company kept United States and rest-of-world rights. Three Phase 3 trials (BROOKLYN, BROADWAY, TANDEM) met their goals, and European regulators accepted Menarini's marketing applications in August 2025, with decisions expected in the second half of 2026. A 9,000-patient heart-attack-and-stroke outcomes trial, PREVAIL, finished enrolling in April 2024; the earliest it can conclude is the end of 2026 and it will likely run longer because it ends only when enough cardiac events have occurred. What the earnings look like: every year on record has been negative on an owner-earnings basis (roughly -$1.7 per share in both 2024 and 2025, on cash burn of about $148-159 million a year and heavy share-based pay of $59 million in 2025). In the first half of 2026 operating cash burn was $70 million, in line with prior years, so we see no change in level. The company has no borrowings; its liabilities are small (about $86 million, mostly the accounting value of warrants). How we valued it: we credit only what is already in hand or contractually locked in. That is cash and investments (about $729 million at year-end 2025; roughly $640 million by our estimate after the first-half 2026 burn, using $634 million of cash and current securities at June 30, 2026 plus longer-dated securities), less the cost of continuing the business. We give no value to future European or US sales, royalties, or the unreceived milestones, because none has been earned, no sales forecast exists in the filings, and approvals have not yet been granted. That is a deliberate, strict choice: obicetrapib may prove valuable, but the size of that value is not yet evidenced, so it is left out rather than guessed at. Bear case (about $1.90 per share): the outcomes trial runs three more years while the company keeps spending roughly $140 million a year, then fails or is abandoned; the drug class has a history of failed outcomes trials (the filing notes the company designed PREVAIL around prior CETP failures). Business worth roughly negative $404 million including wind-down costs, cash about $640 million, leaving about $236 million, or about $1.90 per share on 123 million shares. No debt is owed. Base case (about $2.90 per share): two more years of spending at the current rate (approval decisions and PREVAIL reading out around 2027), then wind-down with nothing further credited. Business worth roughly negative $287 million, cash about $640 million, leaving about $353 million, or about $2.90 per share. Bull case (about $4.10 per share): the European decisions land on schedule and the outcomes trial concludes at its earliest date, so only about one year of spending is needed before the business is self-funding or worth its residual; we credit roughly $132 million of cost, leaving about $508 million, or about $4.10 per share. Even here, no royalty or sales value is counted. What would make this wrong: the shares are worth far more than these figures if obicetrapib is approved, PREVAIL shows a heart-attack benefit, and Menarini plus a US launch produce large sales. The 21% reduction in cardiac events seen in an exploratory analysis of the BROADWAY trial is encouraging but was not a primary result. Until approvals and outcome data exist, that upside cannot be sized from evidence, so it sits outside our numbers; this is why the margin-of-safety price sits near or below our downside case, and the estimate will be revisited once approval and outcomes data arrive. Also note: any future share issuance to fund a US launch would dilute per-share figures. We could not size cash beyond June 30, 2026 from the filings available; the quarterly balance sheet shows $424 million of cash and $210 million of current securities.