valueequityanalysis.com

Independent, business-by-business valuations built from company filings — owner earnings, a ten-year outlook, and a bear / base / bull range. Search a ticker to see our estimate of what the business is worth.

Not investment advice. We are not registered investment advisers, and the people behind this site may hold or trade positions in companies analyzed here. Full disclosures.

MYR GROUP INC. (MYRG) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Margin of safety$28.00 Updated
Analysis Owner's Earnings Geography Growth Strategy Chart Analysis Competitors Circle of Competence
$38.00 $148.00
bear $38.00 base $93.00 bull $148.00 margin of safety $28.00 market price* $280.16
MYR Group builds and maintains electric transmission, distribution and commercial electrical systems. Revenue grew from $1.14 billion in 2016 to $3.66 billion in 2025, about 14% a year, but the cash it actually generates for owners has been wildly erratic: negative in 2017 and 2023, close to zero in 2019 and 2024, and a record $13.82 per share in 2025. Almost none of that swing is the underlying business changing. Two things drive it. First, much of the work is fixed-price, so when a project's cost estimate goes wrong the profit vanishes, which is exactly what happened in 2024 on several clean-energy jobs. Second, cash is tied up in unbilled work and receivables when revenue grows, then released when it does not; 2025's huge number includes a $140 million working-capital release that simply reversed the 2023-2024 build. Stripping that out, 2025 earning power was about $4.89 per share, and that is the base used, growing 6% a year and discounted at 10%. The bear case assumes another prolonged estimate-and-execution slump, roughly $3.00 per share growing 1.5%, discounted at 12%. The bull case gives partial credit to the current surge in grid and data-center work at 8.5% growth and a 9% discount. All three add $8.18 per share of net cash. Because a bad-project year is intrinsic to this industry rather than a rare accident, the margin-of-safety price is anchored on the bear case with a further 25% taken off, giving $28.
Fiscal yearOwner's earningsMethodology
2025 $13.82 ▼
Owner earnings = cash from operations $326,567K - capital expenditures $94,372K - stock-based compensation $14,832K = $217,363K; divided by 15,729,000 weighted-average diluted shares = $13.82 per share. Source: FY2025 Form 10-K (accession 0000700923-26-000007), consolidated statements of cash flows. This figure is flattered by an unusually large working-capital release of $140,399K (accounts receivable +$51,276K, contract liabilities +$63,375K, other liabilities +$38,243K), which reverses the 2023-2024 build rather than representing repeatable earning power. Excluding working-capital movement, owner earnings were $186,168K - $94,372K - $14,832K = $76,964K, or $4.89 per share; this normalized figure is the base used for the discounted cash flow. Net income was $118,416K and diluted EPS $7.53.
2024 $0.16 ▼
Owner earnings = cash from operations $87,115K - capital expenditures $75,938K - stock-based compensation $8,532K = $2,645K; divided by 16,526,000 weighted-average diluted shares = $0.16 per share. Source: FY2024 Form 10-K (accession 0000700923-25-000006), consolidated statements of cash flows. FY2024 was the trough of the fixed-price cycle: net income fell to $30,263K from $90,990K on adverse estimated-gross-profit changes on certain T&D clean energy projects and one C&I project. Working capital used a further $11,074K. Excluding working-capital movement, owner earnings were $98,189K - $75,938K - $8,532K = $13,719K, or $0.83 per share.
2023 -$1.31 ▼
Owner earnings = cash from operations $71,016K - capital expenditures $84,736K - stock-based compensation $8,376K = -$22,096K; divided by 16,837,000 weighted-average diluted shares = -$1.31 per share. Source: FY2023 Form 10-K (accession 0000700923-24-000008), consolidated statements of cash flows. Negative despite record net income of $90,990K because working capital absorbed $85,426K of cash (contract assets -$109,822K and accounts receivable -$48,527K as revenue grew 21% to $3.64 billion). Excluding working-capital movement, owner earnings were $156,442K - $84,736K - $8,376K = $63,330K, or $3.76 per share.
2022 $4.86 ▼
Owner earnings = cash from operations $167,484K - capital expenditures $77,056K - stock-based compensation $7,922K = $82,506K; divided by 16,980,000 weighted-average diluted shares = $4.86 per share. Source: FY2022 Form 10-K (accession 0000700923-23-000012), consolidated statements of cash flows. Capital expenditure runs well above depreciation ($58,170K in FY2022) because the company is expanding its owned equipment fleet; no adjustment made, full capex deducted as the conservative treatment.
2021 $4.51 ▼
Owner earnings = cash from operations $137,228K - capital expenditures $52,361K - stock-based compensation $7,496K = $77,371K; divided by 17,161,000 weighted-average diluted shares = $4.51 per share. Source: FY2021 Form 10-K (accession 0000700923-22-000007), consolidated statements of cash flows. Note: MYR Group is an electrical construction contractor, so reported operating cash flow swings sharply year to year with contract receivable/contract-asset timing on fixed-price work; single-year owner earnings should be read against a multi-year average.

Owner's earnings per share by fiscal year, most recent first. Tap a row to see how that figure was calculated, including the source filing.

Sales geography

We don't have sales geography information for this company yet.

Historical growth strategy

We don't have historical growth strategy information for this company yet.

Chart analysis

We don't have chart analysis for this company yet.

Competitors

We don't have competitor information for this company yet.

Circle of competence

We don't have circle of competence information for this company yet.