MYERS INDUSTRIES INC (MYE) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Myers Industries makes plastic and composite products: reusable containers, pallets and bins (Buckhorn, Akro-Mils), portable fuel and water containers (Scepter), rotationally molded tanks and parts for RVs, marine and industrial customers (Elkhart Plastics, Ameri-Kart), and since February 2024 the DURA-BASE composite ground-protection mats of Signature Systems, bought for about $348 million with a new $400 million term loan. In September 2026 it sold Myers Tire Supply, its founding tire-service distribution business ($187 million of 2025 sales, roughly break-even), to Lion Equity Partners for $30 million. What remains is a single manufacturing business selling into industrial, infrastructure, vehicle, consumer and food and beverage markets. How we measure earnings. We start from operating cash flow, strip out swings in working capital, charge stock compensation as a real cost, and deduct the capital spending needed to keep the plants running. On that basis the company earned between $0.92 and $1.73 per share a year from 2016 to 2025, $1.56 in 2025. Because the Signature purchase was paid for with debt, we value the business before its interest bill ($27.7 million paid in 2025) and then subtract what it owes. Cash flow before interest was $75.8 million in 2024 and $86.4 million in 2025, the only two years that include Signature. Both were soft-demand years: 2025 sales fell on lower pricing in the manufacturing businesses and lower volume in distribution. We anchor on about $80 million a year ($2.12 per share on 37.75 million diluted shares). That is the middle of those two years, less a small amount for the business that was sold. It also lines up with a cycle-adjusted view of the older businesses plus Signature's added cash. The $15 million a year of acquisition amortization and the 2024 $22 million impairment are accounting charges on past purchases and are not deducted again. The risk that acquired earning power fades is carried in the bear case instead. Base case ($22.69 per share). Cash flow of about $81.6 million a year for 30 years with no growth, then nothing assumed. Year one is set 2% above the anchor, below the 14% rise in pre-interest cash flow in 2025. The reason is the first half of 2026: continuing sales rose 5.8% on volume, gross margin reached 34.3% in the second quarter against 31.3% a year earlier, and operating cash flow was $58.8 million against $37.9 million. No further growth is credited. Most of the company's past growth came from sizable, debt-funded acquisitions, not a steady repeatable process. The business is worth about $1.12 billion, owes a net $266 million, leaving about $857 million. Bear case ($12.90 per share). An industrial and recreational-vehicle downturn like 2019-2021 pushes cash flow to about $62 million a year for a decade. A $15 million one-time cost is charged for the New Idria mercury mine Superfund site, where the company has reserved about $12.5 million for study work but has not accrued for cleanup. After year 10, earnings fade 3% a year, reflecting a record of acquisitions that later needed write-downs: the 2024 impairment and the 2018 losses on notes and lease guarantees tied to the old lawn-and-garden business. The business is worth about $754 million against $266 million owed, leaving about $487 million. Bull case ($31.20 per share). The 2026 cost and productivity gains hold, so cash flow reaches about $92 million from 2027 and grows 1.5% a year for the next nine years as existing plants fill. It then stays flat to year 35. The business is worth about $1.44 billion less $266 million owed, leaving about $1.18 billion. Debt. Net debt of $266.5 million ($7.06 per share) counts the $316 million term loan at June 30, 2026 and $7.7 million of finance leases. It adds an estimated $7.5 million for a jury verdict against Signature Systems (up to $7 million plus interest). It subtracts the $30 million sale proceeds and cash above about $13 million needed for operations. In July 2026 the company replaced its term loan with a $250 million loan and extended its revolving credit line, both maturing July 2031. At the end of 2025, leverage of 2.45 times was within the 3.25 times covenant limit, and interest coverage of 4.29 times was above the 3.0 minimum. With $182.5 million swapped to a fixed 4.606% base rate, borrowing costs sit close to our 6% rate, so no adjustment was made. Every case covers its interest several times over. Changes since our last estimate. We previously valued the company at $5.91, $19.71 and $34.06 per share. We now apply one fixed 6% rate to every case and leave risk to the case assumptions. We also account for the Myers Tire Supply sale, the July 2026 refinancing and the stronger first half of 2026. Together these raise the low case. The high case is a little lower because we no longer credit 7% annual growth. What would make this wrong. A deep, lasting slump in RV, marine and agricultural demand, a large cleanup order at New Idria, or another expensive acquisition that disappoints.