Marti Technologies, Inc. (MRT) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Marti is Turkey's largest urban mobility app, based in Istanbul. It started in 2019 renting shared e-scooters, e-bikes and e-mopeds and has since become mainly a ride-hailing platform (cars, motorcycles and, since February 2024, taxis) plus same-hour delivery. Since October 2024 it has charged drivers and riders through subscription packages rather than taking a commission on each trip, and this change has transformed revenue: $18.7 million in 2024, $39.2 million in 2025 and $35.4 million in the first half of 2026 alone (subscriptions $31.4 million, vehicle rentals $7.8 million, before $3.9 million of discounts). In the first half of 2026 the platform handled 35.0 million trips for 2.98 million users, with 544,000 drivers registered to date. The two-wheeled fleet is shrinking (about 21,000 vehicles a day versus 25,000 a year earlier). What the business has earned for its owners. We measure owner earnings as operating cash flow, stripped of short-term working-capital swings, minus share-based pay (a real cost paid in shares) and the capital spending needed to maintain the business. On that basis Marti has never earned money: -$10.9 million in 2022, -$23.2 million in 2023, -$62.6 million in 2024 (inflated by $35.7 million of stock awards granted after the merger) and -$30.5 million in 2025, or -$0.25, -$0.46, -$1.06 and -$0.39 per share. Capital spending has fallen to almost nothing ($0.5 million in 2025) now that the business is mostly an app, so none of it was treated as maintenance in 2025. Adding back cash interest to see what the business produces before its lenders, it consumed $23.4 million in 2025. The recent improvement is real: before interest it consumed $2.4 million in the first quarter of 2026 and only about $0.4 million in the second quarter, when operating cash flow turned positive for the first time. The loss still narrowed mainly because revenue grew; the cost of share-based pay (about $9 million a year) is what keeps it below breakeven. What it owes. At June 30, 2026 Marti had $12.5 million of cash and $106.3 million of convertible notes: $85.8 million at 15% (10% cash plus 5% added to the principal) due July 10, 2028, convertible at $1.65 a share, and $20.6 million at 12.5% due April 30, 2029, convertible at $2.47. Because these rates are far above our 6% yardstick, we add about $15.7 million for the extra interest they will cost before maturity, giving an effective debt burden of about $109.6 million, or about $1.26 per share on 86.9 million shares. Shareholders' equity on the balance sheet is already a deficit of $83.8 million. Management has undrawn commitments for further convertible notes from the same lender group led by Callaway Capital, and on that basis concluded the company has enough liquidity for the next twelve months; any drawing adds to the debt or, on conversion, to the share count. If the notes converted, holders would receive roughly 60 million new shares; that only makes sense for them at values above $1.65 a share, which none of our cases reaches. The cases. We credit only earnings the business has already reached, not growth that depends on the market expanding or on Marti winning more share, because the company has not yet shown it can grow while funding itself. Base case: the business holds roughly its first-half 2026 level, consuming about $5.7 million a year before interest for the two years until the 2028 notes mature, and after that runs at about breakeven, which it has not yet proven it can beat. The business is worth about -$10 million, it owes about $110 million, and shareholders are left with about -$120 million, or -$1.38 per share. Bear case: on June 24, 2026 the Istanbul 14th Commercial Court ruled that Marti's ride-hailing service is unfair competition under the Turkish Commercial Code. It declined to block the service, and Marti is appealing. If the ruling is upheld and ride-hailing in Istanbul is restricted, revenue falls back and the cash drain returns to the 2025 level of about $23 million a year until the notes come due, ending in a restructuring. The business is worth about -$43 million against $110 million owed, about -$153 million, or -$1.75 per share. Bull case: the appeal succeeds and the platform holds the near-breakeven level it reached in the second quarter of 2026. That makes the business worth roughly zero on its own, against $110 million owed, or -$1.26 per share. In all three cases the company appears to owe more than it is worth, by roughly $110 million to $150 million. The notes, not the operating business, set the result. What would make this wrong: if Marti keeps growing subscription revenue as it did from 2025 into 2026 and turns that into meaningful cash after share-based pay, the business could become worth more than its debt, and noteholders would convert rather than be repaid. We have not credited this because it has not happened yet. As a rough guide, the business would need to produce about $20 million a year before interest, reliably, for the shares to be worth around $0.40 after the debt. The Turkish lira fell about 18% against the dollar during 2025, and sustained high inflation in Turkey is a continuing pressure on dollar-reported results.